Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian parliament inaugurated a new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, on December 29 despite continuing protests calling for repeat parliamentary elections and the continuation of EU rapprochement. Western leaders have imposed sanctions on key Georgian officials, including informal leader and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, for... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE

Executive Summary: Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow believes that NATO will not accept Ukraine as a member as long as Russia wages war against it and wants the West to exclude Ukraine from NATO in exchange for “peace” with Russia. Some NATO states are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide... MORE

Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s November 28 announcement about suspending EU integration discussions has caused a pre-revolutionary situation to develop in Georgia, with protests spreading across the country. The government has stepped up repression against the Georgian people in response to the demonstrations.... MORE

Executive Summary: On November 28, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze declared that talks about Georgia’s EU ascension would be postponed until 2028, sparking protests across the country from pro-Western citizens. The government’s heavy-handed response to the protests—including police brutality and mass detentions—has drawn condemnation from... MORE

Executive Summary: As Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ratings continue to decline, a viral video of him shaving has been interpreted as the start of the government’s preparations for the next parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for mid-June 2026 at the latest. The resignation of... MORE