Executive Summary:  President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have begun familiarizing the incoming US administration of Donald Trump with Moscow’s terms and conditions for a political settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Kremlin has noted Trump’s eagerness for a “deal” and expects to... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state,... MORE

Executive Summary: In September, China and Russia held a joint Arctic naval exercise, North-Joint 2024, reflecting their deepening security relationship centered on countering Western influence and reinforcing each other in strategic regions. The exercise underscores Russia and China’s shared strategic and economic interests in securing... MORE

Executive Summary: As Moscow seeks to expand its influence in Africa, Moscow aims to unify all Russian soldiers in Africa, including former Wagnerites who were loyal to the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, into a single effective Africa Corps. That effort has not gone well, and this... MORE

Executive Summary: As Western sanctions increasingly isolate Russia, it has become highly dependent on China for trade and economic support, particularly in energy exports sold at discounted prices. China has capitalized on Russia’s isolation by expanding its investments and economic influence within Russia, with Chinese... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly enacting restrictive laws and policies under the vague definition of “destructive ideology” that target not only political dissent but also aspects of everyday life in an attempt to align society with “traditional” Orthodox values. The Kremlin’s policies and rhetoric,... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow announced that it plans to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations to normalize relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government to combat terrorism in the region. Russia sees the Taliban as its best partner to counter the threat from the Islamic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission,... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is relying more heavily on local ethnic militias  made up of immigrants to ensure order in Russian cities as the war in Ukraine continues and more Russians are sent to the front. Moscow is allowing Bishkek to play a role in supervising... MORE