Executive Summary: Russia appears to be intensifying hybrid operations against Moldova, leveraging disinformation and false narratives to portray Western alliances as instigators of conflict while planning destabilization tactics. Moscow has repeatedly tried to destabilize Moldova to allow for pro-Russian regime change. The threat of Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Kazakhstan has awarded Rosatom the contract to build its first nuclear power plant, signaling continued collaboration with Russia while simultaneously exploring future partnerships with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and France for additional plants. Astana, under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, is shifting from... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Wagner Group is being withdrawn from Mali after a three-and-a-half-year deployment with a mixed record of battlefield successes that have come at enormous civilian cost. Wagner’s replacement with the Russian Defense Ministry’s Africa Corps may signal a change in Kremlin tactics. Regardless... MORE

Executive Summary: Officials from Abkhazia’s Foreign Ministry visited Syria on June 25 to advance political and economic ties with Damascus, highlighting ongoing diplomatic activity between the breakaway Georgian territory and one of its few international backers. Syria’s recognition of Abkhazia in 2018, likely influenced by... MORE

Executive Summary: Turkmenistan has become more active on the international stage in the past few years, breaking from the borderline isolationist foreign policy that it pursued for most of its independent existence and attracting more attention from the major powers. Turkmenistan’s increased international presence is... MORE

Executive Summary Recent meetings between officials from Tashkent, Kabul, and Islamabad have given fresh impetus to the Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (UAP) railway project, with Pakistan leading the way in coordinating final steps before construction. The railway will provide a direct connection from Central Asia to the Indian... MORE

Executive Summary: A Russian raid in Ekaterinburg targeting ethnic Azerbaijanis on June 27 resulted in deaths, injuries, and allegations of torture. This ignited a severe diplomatic crisis, with Baku accusing Moscow of ethnic violence and launching a criminal investigation. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been deteriorating since... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that he is unwilling to negotiate with “terrorist” Ukraine in early June caused a downturn in Russian markets as investors responded to the decreased chance of peace in the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. The Russian economy’s militarization has... MORE

Executive Summary: In response to shifting regional dynamics primarily driven by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Kazakhstan is reshaping its security posture by reducing military dependence on Moscow and prioritizing self-reliance, regional partnerships, and defense modernization. Astana is focusing on its role as a “middle power,”... MORE