Executive Summary: The Kremlin has increased its suppression of regional self-government since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, fearing any manifestation of independence. In several regions, however, the local population has opposed such suppression, and the people’s mood aligns closer with... MORE

Executive Summary: Returning veterans of the war against Ukraine pose an increasingly sinister threat to Russian society as violent crime in the country has skyrocketed, reaching a 15-year high. A return of “Afghan syndrome” and the inability to utilize specialized combat skills after military service... MORE

Executive Summary: The head of the Duma’s defense committee has called for processing men to be drafted not two times a year as now but year-round, something he says would reduce tensions in the spring and fall campaigns by giving all involved time to operate... MORE

Executive Summary: Tensions linger between Armenia and Azerbaijan over a proposed transit route, better known to many as the Zangezur Corridor, through Armenia that would restore a Soviet-era connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhchivan. Reports alleging that the United States had proposed that... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin tasked Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu with strengthening the military-political alliance between Russia and the North Korea, sparking rumors of his potential appointment as Russia’s ambassador to Pyongyang. The prospect of personnel changes in the Security... MORE

Executive Summary: The nationalist, ultraconservative Russian Community has grown in popularity in recent months, with reports that the paramilitary group is coordinating closely with the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Federal Security Service (FSB), and other state structures. The organization differs from similar formations in... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s soaring fiscal deficit, trade imbalances, and stalled reforms undermine post-war reconstruction planning. Foreign investments critical for recovery are also deterred by judicial inefficiencies, incomplete energy sector reforms, and entrenched corruption.  Uncertain financial aid, monetary instability, and mismanaged state assets limit prospects for... MORE

Executive Summary: New laws upping the penalties for Russians who access “extremist” content through unauthorized means reflect Moscow’s growing paranoia with an increasingly frustrated population. Russian officials have justified widespread Internet outages as necessary to the war effort, though many see it as a smokescreen... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan and Armenia are considering an agreement featuring U.S. management of transit through Armenia via the Zangezur Corridor to link Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Russia and Iran are staunchly opposed to the proposal because they fear that U.S. involvement in the route... MORE

Executive Summary: Romania’s new government, sworn in on June 23, appears committed to modernizing the Romanian Naval Forces, but its naval forces remain severely underfunded and outdated. Bucharest has made some questionable decisions in its effort to regain lost time and opportunities to develop and... MORE