Executive Summary:  Ukraine’s June 1 strike on four Russian airbases exposed severe vulnerabilities in Russia’s air defenses, prompting patriotic outcries and demands for retaliation despite censorship and subdued official responses. Russia’s retaliatory strike on June 6, while labeled as retribution, matched previous attack intensities and... MORE

Executive Summary: The German Panzerbrigade 45 (Armored Brigade 45) was officially inaugurated in Lithuania on May 22, marking a step towards the permanent deployment of 5,000 German military personnel on NATO’s frontline by 2027. Roughly 3,200 foreign NATO troops—mainly the German-led Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup,... MORE

Executive Summary: The breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations in Istanbul highlights Moscow’s uncompromising demand to annex four Ukrainian regions. Despite lacking full control, Russia insists on its complete annexation, demonstrating its imperial pursuit of territorial expansion. Russia’s disregard for Ukrainian sovereignty and international agreements signals... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s attacks on non-Russian nationalism are unintentionally having the opposite effect than the Kremlin intends by causing those attacked to dig in to defend themselves and prompting others to do the same lest they become victims. While some attacks on non-Russian communities are... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has released an embryonic Treaty of final settlement with Ukraine following their June 2 bilateral meeting in Istanbul. The territorial clauses require Ukraine to recognize Russia’s de jure annexations of Crimea and four Ukrainian mainland provinces to the full extent... MORE

Executive Summary: Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned against diplomatic engagement with Georgia’s ruling party without a renewed commitment to democratic norms on May 20, criticizing recent crackdowns on protests, unfair elections, and restrictive laws against non-governmental organizations. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have become vocal... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is increasing the production and use of Shahed-type kamikaze drones against Ukraine, constantly improving their effectiveness and ability to break through air defenses. In addition to simpler drones, Moscow is developing and testing more sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring artificial intelligence... MORE

Russia’s strategy for challenging the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid-warfare doctrine that combines conventional military maneuvers in Ukraine with covert, disruptive operations across Europe’s frontlines. Moscow seeks to probe defenses, exploit ambiguity, and sow discord among allies. These campaigns... MORE

Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE