
Latest Articles about Europe's East

New Security Arrangements Between Moscow and Minsk Cement Russia’s Influence (Part 2)
Executive Summary: The Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Russia-Belarus Union State allows for a nuclear weapons response to the use of nuclear or weapons of mass destruction, or certain threats to territorial integrity, against either Belarus or Russia, but it remains... MORE

Settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Ambitions and Realities
Executive Summary: Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was based on flawed assumptions, such as expecting Ukrainian surrender and Western non-interference. These miscalculations have backfired, as Ukraine's determined resistance and commitment to sovereignty, as well as support from Western partners, have thwarted the Kremlin’s original plans.... MORE

New Security Arrangements Between Moscow and Minsk Cement Russia’s Influence (Part 1)
Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus signed two security-related documents in December 2024 that deepen Belarus’s integration within Russia’s geopolitical influence and obligate the Belarusian leadership to participate in military conflicts alongside Russia, similar to the latter’s agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The... MORE

Russian Military Moves to Revive Secret Soviet Submarine Base
Executive Summary: Russia is reviving the Cold War-era Balaklava submarine base in Crimea as it faces frequent and precise maritime strikes from Ukrainian forces. The base’s outdated dimensions, however, prevent it from housing modern submarines, limiting its strategic value and forcing Russia to reposition key... MORE

Kremlin Could be Preparing to Pause Its Invasion of Ukraine
Executive Summary Sources close to the Kremlin have indicated that the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the so-called “special military operation,” is nearing its inevitable end as resources for further offensive actions are running low. Part of the radical nationalist segment of the Russian population refuses... MORE

Military Entrepreneurism Fuels Direct Recruitment in Ukrainian Units
Executive Summary: Facing a critical manpower shortage, Ukraine has adopted a decentralized recruitment model, empowering top-performing units to handle their own recruitment, training, and deployment. This approach, known as military entrepreneurism, contrasts with traditional centralized conscription. Units such as the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and... MORE

The Kremlin Threatens European Countries Could be Oreshnik’s Next Target
Executive Summary: Russia has developed a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), Oreshnik, based on its RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). In November 2024, Russian armed forces conducted a combined missile strike on a Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility as a test for the missile. The... MORE

Russia Promotes Stronger Negotiating Position Than Reality
Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Lukashenka Touts More Anti-Poland Rhetoric Following Presidential Election
Executive Summary: During his re-election as Belarus’s President, Alyaksandr Lukashenka warned Poland that any attempt to annex western Ukraine would precipitate a conflict with Belarus and Russia. Lukashenka’s warnings are part of a broader obsession with Poland’s regional and European influence and support for the... MORE

Kremlin Continues to Promote Cossack Rebirth in 2025
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military... MORE