Russia’s Armed Forces continue to arrive in Belarus for the bilateral large-scale military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, officially scheduled for February 10–20. These deployments, which add to the wider Russian force buildup in proximity to Ukraine’s borders (see EDM, January 26), involves moving... MORE

On December 17, 2021, Russia published draft “proposals” on security guarantees with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. Moscow expressed dissatisfaction with NATO’s eastward enlargement, Western assistance to Ukraine, the deployment of strike weapons in countries bordering Russia, as well as... MORE

On January 28, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka delivered his state of the country address to the Belarusian parliament (YouTube, January 28). This is an annual event, though, in 2021, he skipped it altogether. This last speech lasted 2 hours and 36 minutes; in addition, Lukashenka spent... MORE

On Wednesday, January 26, the United States’ ambassador in Moscow, John Sullivan, personally delivered a memorandum to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs containing the official US reply to earlier Russian demands on security guarantees. Simultaneously, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) handed over to... MORE

This month’s crisis in Kazakhstan, triggered by gas fuel price rises, came as a massive surprise for the Uzbekistani political elites. When the protests erupted in the neighboring country, almost all of Uzbekistan’s political establishment, including President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, were still on New Year’s vacation... MORE

On January 5, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed into law a decree on “Genocide of the Belarusian People During the Great Patriotic War of 1941–1945”; it envisages criminal responsibility for public denial of those horrific events and their specific characterization (President.gov.by, January 5). The following day,... MORE

The Russian-Belarusian large-scale military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022 forms a critical dimension in Moscow’s war planning against Ukraine (see EDM, January 20). The Union State exercise, scheduled for February 10–20, will reportedly take place in the western and southern border areas of Belarus,... MORE

Tensions have been flying high between Moscow and the West for months, with little prospect currently of imminent de-escalation. Stress is also mounting between Russia and Ukraine, as Russian military activities in the surrounding region increase. In Washington, the White House and President Joseph Biden... MORE

Since the start of 2022, two unexpected “black swan” events have indirectly altered last year’s calculus regarding the expected evolution of the Belarusian political crisis. First, Belarus joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan on January 5, 2022. Second, Belarusian potassium... MORE

According to Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from June 2020 to the end of July 2021, Polish consulates issued a total of 178,711 visas for Belarusians, of which 12,190 were so-called humanitarian visas, used by de facto political refugees. For comparison, during 2019, Poland issued... MORE