Executive Summary: On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan secured Romania’s presidency in the election’s second round on May 18, defeating far-right leader George Simion amid fears Simion would shift Romania’s foreign policy and weaken ties with Ukraine and the European Union. The election highlighted Romania’s democratic resilience... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades... MORE

Executive Summary: The lead-up to the latest talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 demonstrates stark differences in negotiation strategies. Kyiv sent Russia a proposal beforehand, while Moscow maintained secrecy, diminishing hopes for substantive progress or meaningful compromise. Moscow’s unrealistic demands, including... MORE

Jamestown Senior Fellow Janusz Bugajski is the author of Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power. The book explores the nature and context of Warsaw’s determined efforts to shape NATO’s eastern policy, maintain a strong alliance with the United States, and build a robust, modern military capable of... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced on May 12 that it will close Russia’s consulate in Krakow after attributing the May 2024 Warsaw shopping center fire to Russian security services, as one of only seven North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries to shut down Russian consulates.  Moscow... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s evolving military strategy in the Baltic region is shifting from predictable linear offensives to deceptive and flanking maneuvers, with a possible thrust through southeastern Latvia that could strategically fracture the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Baltic defense. Municipal governance vulnerabilities in Latvia,... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas postings, Ambassador Bajarūnas served as the Ambassador of Lithuania to Russia and as Deputy Ambassador of... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE