Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: The missions of 25 member states of the European Union, along with the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement on September 24, strongly condemning the Georgian government’s “baseless and damaging” statements criticizing their diplomatic missions in Georgia. The vast majority of European states... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s 2022 invasion triggered a surge in Ukraine’s defense sector, experiencing a 350 percent growth since 2022. Ukraine leads globally in tactical and long-range drones, aiming to become the world’s “drone capital.” Upcoming artificial intelligence (AI)-driven swarms are anticipated to replace one-operator systems,... MORE

Executive Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on August 19, met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Minsk following a string of previous high-level visits that expanded bilateral relations in commercial and military spheres. Tensions with the West have pushed Belarus and Iran to seek alignment... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 24 Ukrainian naval drone attack on oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse marked the first time that Ukraine has used maritime drones to attack Russian oil industry facilities.   Ukraine’s development of advanced maritime drones like the Magura and SeaBaby have demonstrated... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s youth organizations have played an important role in the Kremlin’s indoctrination effort, with Russian President Putin himself facilitating their development. Groups such as Yunarmia, Avangard camps, and the “Movement of the First” serve as platforms for indoctrination and militarization of their members,... MORE

Executive Summary: The first phone call between U.S. President Trump and Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in August, followed by high-level meetings in Minsk, marked a surprising shift after 15 years of estrangement between the two countries.  The issue of political prisoners has become the central... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and siloviki-linked Telegram channels are promoting disinformation of a purported plan for a European “occupation” of Transnistria and subsequent attack on Russian forces in the region, in what appears to be a coordinated campaign. These channels are aiming... MORE

Executive Summary: Within the last two decades, patriotic education in Russia has become a well-functioning apparatus of indoctrination that combines schools, youth organizations, museums, religion, and digital platforms. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, nationalistic education evolved into a vital pillar of governance,... MORE

Executive Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump and Polish President Karol Nawrocki met at the White House on September 3, garnering much attention in Poland since the country views its alliance with the United States as the cornerstone of its security policy. Nawrocki, then a Polish... MORE