The Belorysy i Rynok newspaper asked three prominent Belarusian analysts to predict the country’s near future. But two out of three only shared observations, not forecasts. Thus, Piotr Rudkovsky, head of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, observed that for any political regime, creating an... MORE

On December 31, 2020, the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) delivered its first volumes of natural gas from the Shah Deniz field off the Caspian coast of Azerbaijan to Greece and Bulgaria. The 2,175-miles-long pipeline is the European leg of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) that connects... MORE

The decision of Russian democratic opposition leader Alexei Navalny to return to Moscow was announced on January 13 in a deliberately matter-of-fact way—and produced a full-blown political storm. His message on Instagram was as plain as it gets: “The air-ticket for Sunday is just purchased,... MORE

Russia’s “hard power” activity in the Sea of Azov has increased significantly since May 2018, when the authorities officially opened the Kerch Strait Bridge they had been building since the illegal annexation of Crimea (UNIAN, May 15, 2018). Immediately, experts identified Moscow’s bridge building project... MORE

What will happen in Belarus, and when? Any attempt at addressing this question would need to invoke such variables as the level of unity of Belarusian society, actions of the political regime, the health of the Belarusian economy, the role of Moscow, and the relative... MORE

Thirty years ago tomorrow (January 13), Soviet forces fired at unarmed Lithuanians in Vilnius, killing 15 and thereby accelerating the recovery of the full independence of the Baltic countries as well as the demise of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Both the details... MORE

As in many other countries, COVID-19 dominated the agenda in Ukraine in 2020. Kyiv locked down domestic trade, services, education, and passenger transportation as well as closed its state borders earlier than did most neighboring countries in March. That swift reaction may explain why, during... MORE

On December 29, 2020, Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko stated that Russian energy supplies to Belarus in 2021 will be purchased under “favorable terms,” thus confirming that the months-long negotiations between the two countries had concluded (BelTA, December 29, 2020). The details of the bilateral... MORE

On December 7, the General Assembly of the United Nations (UNGA) adopted the resolution “Problem of the militarization of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, Ukraine, as well as parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov,” initiated by... MORE

At the beginning of 2020, Belarus was becoming increasingly assertive and willing to resist Russian pressure tactics (see EDM, January 14, 2020). And that assessment remained valid at least until late May. Against the background of Belarus and Russia’s lingering oil price dispute, US Secretary... MORE