Stalemate is presently used most often to describe the current state of Russia’s war against Ukraine these days. Fighting along the frontlines, however, is quite fluid and may be approaching a major turn. President Vladimir Putin remains defiantly confident that Russian forces are making steady... MORE

Executive Summary German authorities arrested four alleged Hamas operatives in Berlin and Rotterdam in December 2023 for allegedly plotting attacks on Jewish sites in Europe. Three additional suspects were arrested in Denmark and Netherlands. The German interior ministry considers Berlin-based Majed al-Zeer to be "[Hamas's]... MORE

Moldova’s ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is setting the stage to hold a national referendum on the country’s EU membership this fall, on the same day as the planned presidential elections (Deschide.md, January 10). This follows President Maia Sandu’s recent announcement that she... MORE

On December 31, 2023, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka declared in his New Year’s address that the “Year of Peace and Creation” has come to an end in Belarus and that 2024 will usher in the “Year of Quality.” He emphasized the importance of the connection... MORE

In December 2023, independent journalists and human rights activists prepared a prognosis of what awaits Russia in the near future. According to participants in the “Network Freedoms” project, Russian citizens should expect total censorship on the Internet. The Russian authorities will begin to recognize popular... MORE

On  December 14, 2023, the European Union granted official candidate status to Georgia (Twitter.com/CharlesMichel,December 14, 2023; European Commission, accessed January 2). The decision will presumably have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Inspired by Brussels’ pronouncement, Georgia intends to overtake Ukraine... MORE

On the night of December 29, 2023, Russia conducted a series of massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. This operation was meant to add weight to President Vladimir Putin’s confident and unwavering words in a series of public events that concluded the year. It produced... MORE

Executive Summary Mikhail "Pitbull" Turkanov is a prominent commander in the Española volunteer brigade, a former MMA fighter, and a Zenit Football Club hooligan with tattoos that include neo-Nazi imagery. Charismatic propaganda figures like Turkanov are able to appeal to highly nationalistic soccer hooligans who... MORE

Executive Summary Putin has tried to convey the “success” of his war by maintaining the façade that there are no serious problems on the home front and that the Russian people remain resolute in their support of the Kremlin leader. Moscow’s messaging has become less... MORE

The true organizational state of the Russian Armed Forces has been a “black box” since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exact number of troops at the Kremlin’s disposal is unclear, and the mix of contracted soldiers, volunteers, and prisoners on the... MORE