Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to distort Western discussions about Ukrainian use of long-range weapons on Russian soil, launching a fresh wave of escalatory threats should Western capitals grant Kyiv such authorization. Putin’s escalatory threats of nuclear retaliation aim to pressure Western... MORE

Executive Summary: The July attack by Tuareg rebels in Mali that killed Malian government troops and Wagner Group mercenaries has been connected to Ukraine, causing substantial international backlash for Kyiv. The death of multiple members of Mali’s army in the attack would mean Ukraine was... MORE

Executive Summary: Despite fear of punishment for voicing opposition and the Kremlin’s aggressive propaganda, public support for its war in Ukraine has waned, especially as those returning from the front expose the reality of the conflict. Research indicates that Russians increasingly prioritize regional issues over... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the Kremlin began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the West imposed its sanctions against Moscow, Russia has been relying on China to supply materials to maintain its military-industrial complex. China does not wish to see Russia defeated as this would set... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has been working to counter Russian influence in Africa and expand its own by doubling its embassies on the continent and increasing aid. Most African countries remain neutral because Ukraine is a major grain supplier.... MORE

Executive Summary: As the new school year begins in Russia, the Kremlin is restructuring the curriculum to be more patriotic, teaching school children about “what is important,” including the “Fundamentals of Religious Culture” and military training. Due in part to limited access to technology and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eastern Economic Forum, held in Vladivostok from September 3 to 6, demonstrated Moscow’s shortcomings in its commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, especially China. Stagnation rather than expansion is the trend in Russia-China economic interactions, as Chinese companies are... MORE

Executive Summary: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established a framework of authority and values that fosters voluntary compliance from subordinate states, as exemplified by the Solomon Islands’ recent diplomatic alignment with Beijing, abandoning recognition of Taiwan in favor of the PRC. The PRC... MORE

Executive Summary: In August, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announced that Ukrainian attack drones en route to Russia had entered Belarusian airspace, provoking a harsh response from Minsk. Official Minsk’s decision to withdraw troops from the border had demonstrated a willingness to act in ways that... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has caused Putin’s ratings to fall to their lowest point since the war began. The majority of Russians, nevertheless, still say they are “satisfied” with their lives. To prevent the growth of societal discontent, the Kremlin will seek to... MORE