Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s ascension to the office of State President led to an outburst in diplomatic activity that lasted until the coronavirus pandemic. Breaking with Hu Jintao’s later years, Xi made more trips than his Prime Minister and engaged in a greater number of... MORE

Executive Summary: Minsk is determined to secure a place at any future negotiation table for peace in Ukraine and sees diplomatic opportunities through its role in the peace process. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and other officials stress that Belarus, as a neighboring and affected state,... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has significantly increased the frequency, range, and scale of its long-range strikes deep into Russian territory, targeting critical military and economic infrastructure. This has led to disruptions in Russian operations and forced Moscow to implement costly countermeasures. Ukraine is advancing its own... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is hopeful that the new US President-elect Donald Trump may disrupt Western unity and potentially ease pressure on Russia, especially concerning sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin frames Russia’s confrontation with the West as a global mission,... MORE

Executive Summary: Following the invasion of Ukraine, Norway faces heightened security risks from Russia, including espionage attempts and incidents involving drones near critical infrastructure. In the intelligence’s assessment, Norway’s oil and gas facilities, essential to the European energy supply, are particularly vulnerable targets, necessitating strengthened... MORE

Executive Summary: Since the beginning of Russia’s war in 2022, Ukraine has been rapidly transitioning from importing arms to producing them domestically and is working toward becoming a significant player in the global arms market. Ukraine is expanding its production capacity for critical technologies such... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 12, the Kremlin has continued to delay its response, while Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has threatened further escalation if Ukraine does not halt its advances. Rumors indicate that Russia and Belarus may conduct joint... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, its equally illegal absorption of Ukraine’s Donbas oblast illustrates the lack of respect Moscow has for Ukraine as a separate state. Kremlin officials are openly talking about changing all Ukraine’s current borders,... MORE

 Executive Summary: Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won reelection in a hard-fought runoff, followed on the heels of an equally hard-fought referendum. The voting underscored chronic divisions in Moldovan society in both political and territorial terms. Russia and its local sympathizers seek to rehabilitate “Moldovan... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian industrial output index comparing January–September 2024 to January–September 2023 is 104.4 percent, demonstrating economic growth when considering the data in rubles. The inflation of the ruble makes it seem as if the Russian military-industrial complex is growing. However, when considering these... MORE