Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 11 in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Putin called on the Ukrainian side to observe the ceasefire, but noted that the Russian army would retaliate in case of violation. Ukrainian officials report... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has offered to mediate U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations, positioning itself as a helpful intermediary with clear interests in securing benefits from any potential agreement. Moscow’s involvement in Iran’s nuclear talks would enhance its influence in the nuclear weapons supply chain through proposals to... MORE

Executive Summary: As Ukraine marks 39 years since the Chornobyl disaster, Russian forces continue to pose new nuclear threats as Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine continues. Russia continues to occupy Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency warn that... MORE

Executive Summary: Two framework plans on how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have been submitted by the United States and collectively by France, Germany, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. The quadripartite plan marks the first entry of Western European governments into these negotiations. While... MORE

On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a long-anticipated minerals deal providing the United States with preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine. The agreement creates a U.S.-controlled, jointly-managed investment fund that will receive revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil, and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian State Registry re-registered “Conservatives for Georgia,” a pro-Russian party tied to political violence and anti-Western rhetoric, signaling the ruling Georgian Dream party’s continued effort to consolidate pro-Russian forces ahead of elections. Ultranationalist groups, originally civil movements promoting anti-Western propaganda, have gained... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced plans in February to increase Russian involvement in Africa, as Russia’s Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Dmitry Volvach, expects that Russian-African trade will double in the next five years.  Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using Russian ice hockey player Alexander Ovechkin’s record as the all-time National Hockey League–North America’s professional ice hockey league—scorer to promote nationalism, claiming the achievement for Russia. Russian President Putin has long used sports to symbolize Russian values and project... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s demographic decline is accelerating, with the population giving birth to fewer babies during the first quarter of 2025 than at any time in the last two centuries. Moscow is alarmed by demographic decline because of the impact of population decline on the... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly relied on expansionist, militaristic foreign policy in his 25-year rule to centralize power and justify the dissolution of Russian federalism. Moscow has stripped regional governments of the power to economically and socially self-develop, leaving them only able... MORE