Executive Summary: The Black Sea is the only theater in which Ukraine is prevailing over Russia in the ongoing war. The Kremlin regards the U.S.-brokered, deadline-driven ceasefire talks as an opportunity to reverse Ukraine’s successes in this theater. A maritime ceasefire without demarcation lines and... MORE

Executive Summary: Sweden’s Security Service warns of an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction  for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe. Sweden’s recent accession to the North Atlantic... MORE

Executive Summary: Both Kyiv and Moscow say they are not interested in “freezing” the conflict in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Moscow insists that any accord must address the “root causes” of the conflict, and Kyiv says that Russia must pull back from its advances into... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow portrays itself as a constructive actor advocating for economic cooperation in the Arctic and Baltic seas while also conducting an increasing rate of hybrid attacks and engaging in provocative discourse. This double game of cooperation has long marked the Kremlin’s Arctic agenda,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia faces significant economic strain due to declining oil and gas revenues, disrupted supply chains, and falling stock markets, which are exacerbated by global trade disruptions and internal demographic challenges that impact military recruitment. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent envoy Kirill Dmitriev to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is now actively debating what Moscow should do if and when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine ends, focusing first and foremost on how to reintegrate veterans lest they spark unrest and even chaos on their return. Moscow is also... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is accelerating societal militarization through aggressive conscription tactics and the rapid expansion of military training in civilian education, aiming to create a long-term, competent force while limiting civilian access to higher education. Russia is opening more Military Training Centers and reopening command... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin seeks to restore normal relations with the West as a bargaining chip for negotiations on Russia’s war against Ukraine, despite intensifying anti-European rhetoric in Russian media. Pro-Kremlin analysts, especially from military-linked outlets, increasingly accuse Europe of Nazism and suggest deliberate strategies... MORE

Executive Summary: The European Union’s 14th sanctions included restrictions on the transshipment of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) through EU territory to third-party countries. The sanctions related to contracts signed before June 24, 2024 came into effect on March 26. Russia’s LNG industry faces significant... MORE

Executive Summary: Central Asians have long called for Russia to divert water from Siberian rivers to help them address water shortages, which are a result of rising demand and global warming. These calls have been rebuffed because Russians have feared that it would harm their... MORE