Since the start of 2022, two unexpected “black swan” events have indirectly altered last year’s calculus regarding the expected evolution of the Belarusian political crisis. First, Belarus joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan on January 5, 2022. Second, Belarusian potassium... MORE

From January 6 through January 19, Russia and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) conducted a successful stabilization mission in Kazakhstan, at the latter country’s urgent request. The organization’s member states (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) may, under their treaty, undertake... MORE

On January 5, in response to the then-rapidly worsening national crisis in Kazakhstan, which was triggered by increased fuel prices resulting in popular protests sweeping the country, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev formally requested an intervention by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The following day, the... MORE

In early January, the sudden outbreak of massive anti-government protests in Kazakhstan and subsequent intervention by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) reverberated across the entire post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan. These events on the other side of the Caspian Sea are of great importance... MORE

More than any other event since the Crimean annexation in 2014, the popular protests in Kazakhstan and the subsequent Russian-led intervention to suppress them have deeply troubled the countries of the former Soviet space. Many are now fearful that both the protests and their suppression... MORE

Diplomats naturally value dialogue; but when it comes to current relations with Moscow, the wisdom of such an approach looks dubious—particularly following the week of consecutive rounds of tough talks between Russia on the one hand and the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization... MORE

In his first speech following the official declaration of the Islamic State’s (IS) caliphate in 2014, the new caliph, Abubakr al-Baghdadi, delivered his famous audio statement titled, “A Message to the Mujahidin and the Muslim Ummah in the Month of Ramadan.” In the speech, al-Baghdadi... MORE

In the secretive world of Chechen militants in Syria, the limelight often is shunned and garrulity is considered a sin. Propaganda videos posted online or occasional interviews with journalists or researchers rarely feature these fighters talking about their backgrounds or disclosing personal information. A great... MORE

Russia conducted its first kinetic satellite interception on November 15, 2021. A ground-based (presumably silo-based) missile was launched from the Plesetsk launch site and targeted the dead Soviet military satellite Kosmos-1408 at an altitude of about 480 kilometers—considered low Earth orbit (LEO). The Russian Ministry... MORE

Emboldened by Moscow and Belgrade, Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serbs leader in Bosnia-Herzegovina, followed on his October announcement that Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) would start withdrawing from shared state institutions, including the army, judiciary, tax system and security services (RTV, December 10). On December 10,... MORE