Executive Summary: Moscow’s latest offer to start talks with Kyiv amounts to a set of non-negotiable demands, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is redoubling his attempts to impose the settlement terms discussed in 2022, supplemented by several aggravating conditions. The Kremlin has de-recognized Ukrainian President... MORE

Executive Summary: The Summit on Peace in Ukraine, held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, demonstrated a unified position held by many states worldwide in respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and upholding international law. Russian propaganda had tried to raise concerns that the absence of... MORE

Executive Summary: The hostage taking in a Rostov detention center on June 16 has highlighted growing problems in the Russian penal system, including overcrowding, a shortage of guards, and a shift in the balance of power between ordinary criminals and political prisoners. The Rostov action... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka met in Minsk on May 23 and 24 to discuss synchronizing the second and third phases of their joint non-strategic nuclear exercises. The composition of forces and means involved in the exercises suggests... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland did not provide much substantive progress in signing a peace agreement, but the wide participation of the international community demonstrated a sharp rebuttal to the Kremlin’s efforts to hijack the agenda. Russian President Vladimir Putin hastily presented... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sharing of the number of contracted soldiers, prisoners, and losses, as well as yield of Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons demonstrate that he is an active participant in Kremlin propaganda’s “active measures.” Putin seeks to demoralize Ukrainian society with the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ramzan Kadyrov’s regime in Chechnya is showing signs of weakness, and Moscow may want to exploit Kadyrov’s difficulties to install a more pliable figure as the region’s new leader. The large-scale invasion of Ukraine limits the Kremlin’s ability to manipulate regional elites in... MORE

Executive Summary: Officials in Russia and the occupied Georgian territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia decried Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s declaration that by 2030, Georgians will once again live with Abkhazians and Ossetians. Georgian Dream officials and propagandists have alluded to a backdoor agreement between... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian special services are conducting a broad disinformation campaign in disseminating an alleged narrative of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s illegitimacy. The primary goal of these psychological operations is to undermine unity within Ukrainian society and dissuade further Western support for Ukraine.  A... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow says that Western actions in Gotland, Bornholm, and other islands in the Baltic Sea threaten Russian national security and that Russia will soon have no choice but to respond militarily. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly used the logic that Russia wants... MORE