Executive Summary: Ukraine’s drone attack on defense industries in Tatarstan has shown the reach of Kyiv’s weapons into Russia and raised questions in the non-Russian republics about Moscow’s ability to defend them. Kazan has concluded that it cannot count on the Russian government to defend... MORE

Executive Summary: The All-Russian Cossack Society continues to establish outposts in the occupied territories of Ukraine under Moscow’s direction.  The state-registered Cossack movement is working to deepen the control of loyal structures in the occupied regions and take advantage of existing social beliefs, particularly through... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian mobilization will be necessary to repel a possible Russian offensive in the coming summer, but a draft mobilization law is currently being held up in Ukraine’s parliament. Such uncertainty has a negative impact on Ukrainian society, opening the way to various manipulations... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is actively using the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to drum up support for the war in Ukraine and to spread its influence abroad. Moscow has long used the ROC to achieve its goals by establishing spy networks throughout the post-Soviet space... MORE

Executive Summary: The Georgian government has again introduced a bill on foreign agents that follows the model of similar Russian legislation, specifically targeting nongovernmental organizations and Western donors. The initiative will play a central role in the approaching October parliamentary elections, as Georgian Dream hopes... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow looks to the Volga region—an ethnically non-Russian region and one of the poorest in Russia—for “volunteers” to fight in the war against Ukraine.  Many of these “volunteer” battalions have experienced heavy losses along the frontlines, which the Russian government attempts to cover... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death and the specter of increased hopelessness in Russia’s regions have highlighted growing apathy among the Russian opposition. Supporters of “post-Russia” movements are searching for alternatives to Putin’s Kremlin that differ significantly from the long-standing Moscow-centrist model. The next Kremlin crisis... MORE

Executive Summary As NATO takes steps to increase its solidarity, Russian propagandists have responded by exaggerating Western disunity. Kremlin propaganda portrays NATO’s strengthening European pillar as evidence of weakening US leadership. A more concerted focus on Western disunity has become a way for Russia to... MORE

Executive Summary The Mongolian and British governments are engaged in talks on opening an “air bridge” to increase exports of Ulaanbaatar’s rare-earth elements (REEs) to the West. Mongolia possesses vast deposits of REES that play a critical role in the development and production of modern... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is expanding the number of “volunteer battalions” from non-ethnically Russian regions, especially Bashkortostan. Most battalions are named after Soviet or post-Soviet heroes—likely to prevent inflaming local patriotic (nationalist), anti-Russian, or anti-colonial sentiments in Bashkortostan. Moscow, in legitimizing these formations, is trying to... MORE