Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian propagandists believe that new Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov’s ultimate loyalty to Putin and absence of corruption scandals puts him in a prime position to accomplish the tasks set before him. Putin’s move to reorganize his cabinet demonstrates a shift in the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain. The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan has been dealing with severe energy shortages over the past few years due to issues in gas production and a transition to using more imported gas for energy needs. Tashkent has signed major agreements with Ashgabat and Moscow for gas imports, in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unwilling to trust anyone outside his inner circle and failed to promote younger politicians–effectively demanding that Russia’s aging political elite continue serving in government. Andrei Belousov, the newly appointed defense minister, is expected to resolve military overspending... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The... MORE

Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE

Executive Summary:  The jamming of GPS in the Nordic-Baltic region is increasingly disrupting public safety, with recent incidents affecting civilian flights. Several governments have attributed GPS interference to Russia and have called for an international political response. Whether or not the GPS disruption is intentional,... MORE

Executive Summary: The Crocus City Hall terrorist attack has led to a rise in Russian xenophobia against Central Asians and a strong crackdown on Central Asian migrants from the Kremlin. Labor migrants from Central Asia make up a majority of Russia’s migrant labor market, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s hybrid strategy against Ukraine continues to focus heavily on crippling civilian infrastructure to undermine the Ukrainian economy. Moscow is targeting Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage system, with the aim of weakening the European Union since it has increasingly relied on Ukraine’s storage... MORE