The role of Russia’s Armed Forces and its proxies in Ukraine has been subject to much speculation. Throughout the crisis, the Kremlin has pursued a course of “plausible deniability” in its use of hard power, or kept the threat of large-scale invasion lurking in the... MORE

On August 4, the Ukrainian media widely reported on the arrest of Vladimir Mukhtarov, the major-general of Ukraine’s Cossack community. According to a statement by the prosecutor’s office of Luhansk province, Mukhtarov is suspected of having organized several “terrorist groups” near the town of Severodonetsk.... MORE

On August 1, Chechen and Ingush police clashed on the administrative border between the two republics. A heated argument between the two groups turned violent and one of the Chechen police officers reportedly fired his gun, injuring his own colleague. According to the Ingush side,... MORE

Building a giant version of Transnistria in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (Donbas) is Russia’s current policy, but it was not its start-off option. It became a fall-back plan when Moscow’s even more ambitious “Novorossiya” project failed (at least temporarily) in the other six provinces... MORE

With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I... MORE

A high level of secrecy was the defining feature of the Chechen militants under the command of Doku Umarov. Even news of the split within the Chechen insurgency’s ranks was transmitted mainly by the neighboring jamaats, rather than by the Chechens. This situation has radically... MORE

Western diplomacy seems about to revert to pressuring Ukraine into a disadvantageous armistice and negotiations with Russia’s protégés in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” This could become the basis for creating a Transnistria-type Russian protectorate, frozen in place and time on Ukraine’s territory (see... MORE

Executive Summary The Russia-supported separatists operating in eastern Ukraine as well as some of their backers in Russia are increasingly espousing a radical ideology based on a meld of Christian Orthodoxy, expansionist Eurasianism, and irredentist state aggression. One important figure closely tied into this group... MORE

Several hundred young people attended the funeral of their friend and colleague Timur Kuashev, who was found dead under strange circumstances on the outskirts of Nalchik, the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria, on August 1. Kuashev was only 26 years old, but he was a well-known journalist... MORE

Between July 30 and August 4, flash skirmishes erupted along the Armenia-Azerbaijan contact line. While small-scale ceasefire violations have been relatively common, the recent events caused the highest casualty rates this frozen conflict has seen since 2008. According to official sources, 13 Azerbaijani soldiers were... MORE