Executive Summary: The upcoming “Big Circle” (Bol’shoi Krug) meeting of Russia’s Cossack movement highlights their growing significance in Kremlin planning and national affairs, akin to the involvement of similar groups in Soviet-era politics. The meeting aims to unify the Cossacks around President Putin and discuss... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s rhetoric toward Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, has become increasingly hostile since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.  The rhetoric from Russia includes threats of invasion and annexation, reminiscent of the language used toward Ukraine before... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate is gradually losing its position at home–and more rapidly in some post-Soviet states–due to its slavish support of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While Kyiv is about to ban its branch, Tallinn is demolishing a compromise... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is investing significantly in militarizing children and youth, allocating substantial funds for patriotic education programs, youth movements, and competitions. Military service is glorified across all levels of education in changes to the national curriculum emphasizing the defense of the homeland and preparing... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s economy benefited from increased military expenditures, but industrial production is stagnating as growth limits. Heavy prioritization of the defense industry is causing contractions in other sectors like consumer goods production. The Russian energy sector suffers from declining revenues, delayed projects, and challenges... MORE

Executive Summary: Discrepancies between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims and reality regarding the size and productivity of the Russian military-industrial complex are becoming more apparent as the war in Ukraine continues. Official analysis contradicts public statements on the size and success of the Russian military-industrial... MORE

Executive Summary: A resurgence of Cossack militarism is occurring in Russia, evidenced through proposed legislation to the State Duma to establish a reserve army. Cossack leaders announce plans for new volunteer battalions and professional special forces units, leveraging experienced fighters from the ongoing conflict and... MORE

Executive Summary: Although Moscow and Ufa believe their repressions against protesters have been successful, the repressions will likely radicalize protest attitudes, ensuring that non-Russians will see Moscow as the problem. Expert observers recognize this is the case, sparking a new discussion about what the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Lukashenka strengthens ties with Russia through various events, emphasizing economic cooperation, joint ventures, and alignment on historical narratives to cement their alliance further. These symbolic gestures showcase a united front against perceived Western threats, reinforcing the ideological bond between Belarus and... MORE

Executive Summary: Support for Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin indicates readiness among Russians to oppose the war openly, reflecting discontent with both Putin and ongoing conflicts and motivating the Kremlin to regain support. The Kremlin has linked war benefits to everyday needs, portraying destruction as... MORE