Executive Summary: On the third anniversary of the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Western countries imposed new sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, banking institutions, and defense industry, reinforcing efforts to weaken its war capabilities. Western sanctions aim to curb Russia’s financial and military strength, primarily... MORE

Executive Summary: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) faces growing challenges in expanding its influence, as key neighboring states, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, resist full membership. Russia’s geopolitical ambitions through the EAEU are hindered by competing regional forces, particularly the People’s Republic of China’s growing investment... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine and the United States reached a landmark deal on rare earth elements (REEs), with Ukraine allocating proceeds from the future monetization of its mineral resources to fund domestic projects. Washington has emphasized securing REEs and critical minerals from Ukraine in exchange for... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to grew in 2024, despite heavy sanctions. Russia plans to continue this trend and capture 20 to 25 percent of the global LNG market by 2035. To achieve this goal, Russia has created two strategies: a... MORE

Executive Summary: The Organization of Turkic States (OTS), comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Türkiye, Uzbekistan, and observers, is leading efforts to enhance the Middle Corridor. This initiative aims to bolster regional connectivity, mitigate trade disruptions from geopolitical instability, and develop sustainable, competitive transport networks through multilateral... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s need to supply its invasion forces in Ukraine, its rapid shift of trade away from Europe toward Asia due to sanctions, and slashed investments have put unprecedented strains on Russian railways. China will seek alternative routes for trade with Europe, using domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, has evolved as a key alternative for trade between Europe and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) due to sanctions against Russia. The route bypasses Russia and transits through Central Asia, the Caucasus, and... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow introduced a new accounting scheme enabling European buyers to pay for gas in rubles, circumventing U.S. sanctions and using intermediaries and currency exchanges to bypass restrictions.  Russia has expanded its shadow fleet and increased its oil tanker capacity by 70 percent, helping... MORE

Executive Summary: A new “flash ironmaking” technology invented in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) reduces reliance on imported high-grade iron ore, aligning with Xi Jinping’s push for industrial chain autonomy and supply chain resilience. The technology may mitigate geopolitical risks but is unlikely to... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces challenges to his authority from four main groups: retired party elders such as Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao; princelings, especially those based overseas; military leaders, such as Zhang Youxia; and parts of the middle and entrepreneurial classes who are voicing... MORE