Executive Summary In the last decade, Philippine naval forces have successfully neutralized Abu Sayyaf's once significant piracy operations in the maritime area between Mindanao, Philippines and Sabah, Malaysia. This is due in no small part to regional cooperation and joint anti-piracy efforts by the Philippines,... MORE

Executive Summary Globally, recent alleged Hamas-inspired attacks have lacked sophistication compared to past IS attacks or white nationalist shooters over the past decade. Even so, "lone wolves" motivated by news from Gaza pose an unpredictable threat. Recent examples of this include the several assaults that... MORE

Executive Summary Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to build a naval base on Somaliland's coast. This was offered in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as an independent state, drawing condemnation from al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has failed to establish itself... MORE

Executive Summary The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) released the 8th video in their "Battles Are Accelerated" series showcasing attacks on Pakistani security forces throughout 2023, meant to portray the TTP as a formidable force and the Pakistani military as weak. Infographics at the end of the... MORE

Executive Summary Egianus Kogoya, a West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) commander, is holding a New Zealand pilot hostage and threatening to execute him unless West Papua wins its independence, though the movement’s leadership has disagreed with this hardline stance. Over the course of two... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia has acknowledged its inability to compete with the West in space and is looking for solutions to shore up the weaknesses of its space program. Moscow views the military satellite systems of the United States and its allies as a significant military... MORE

Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The development of asymmetric military capabilities, including indigenous weapons systems, is crucial for Taiwan's defense and deterrence strategies against potential aggression from the PRC. Strengthening alliances and cooperation, especially in advanced military technologies and training, is key to bolstering Taiwan’s defense force and... MORE

Executive Summary: President Xi Jinping is unlikely to abandon his goals for Taiwan, focusing on peaceful reunification and anti-independence, while continuing to exert economic and diplomatic pressures. This is despite potential economic downturns in the PRC. The risks of disruption and to economic stability make... MORE

Executive Summary: Civic groups are enhancing “social resilience” by forming self-training organizations focused on preparing for potential conflict impacts beyond just military engagement. These groups address a broad range of issues including civil defense, emergency rescue, disaster preparedness, cyberattack responses, and infrastructure maintenance. Civil society... MORE