Executive Summary Mullah Noorullah Noori has recently questioned the validity of the Durand Line, the internationally recognized border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, raising tensions between Kabul and Islamabad. Noori is currently Minister for Borders and Tribal Affairs in the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and served... MORE

Executive Summary GRU Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Bamatgireyevich Yevkurov has been tasked with taking over Russia’s operations in Africa from the Wagner Group. Proven and effective, he will be a formidable threat to Western interests in the region. Yevkurov is a Muslim Ingush from Russia’s North Caucasus... MORE

Executive Summary Abdul Mateen is the fugitive leader of Islamic State (IS) in al-Hind, and his network has been behind a series of bombings in southern India in the last five years. While his group has been seriously degraded by the National Investigation Agency (NIA),... MORE

Executive Summary: Azerbaijan is increasing the pressure on Armenia to return eight border settlements— four villages and four exclaves—under Baku’s sovereignty. Azerbaijani officials and the expert community have repeatedly demanded the return of the four border villages, voicing optimism that the issue can be solved... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus tightened its mobilization legislation in April, suggesting that it might be taking steps to prepare for direct combat. The Belarusian military is simultaneously increasing its use of military equipment under the guise of exercises, purchasing more drones, and staffing brigades to wartime... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is struggling to attract more volunteers to fight in Ukraine, and Moscow has increasingly turned to the outer regions for recruitment. Such an approach has raised ethnic tensions in some regions where the volunteers are largely non-ethnic Russians, while other regions have... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian women who oppose Putin’s war and want their men to come home have adopted a new tactic, wordlessly banging pots outside their homes to protest the war. The movement has been gaining momentum, and the Kremlin has responded by increasing repression and... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow now likely considers US commercial space assets as part of Washington’s military infrastructure following the Department of Defense’s issuance of the 2024 Commercial Space Integration Strategy. Russia’s military capabilities in space are highly asymmetric compared to US methods, and the Russian military... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow projects confidence with its continued offensive in Ukraine, but the Kremlin is worried about growing international efforts for peace talks and increased discontent at home. Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan is taking steps to engage in this summer’s peace talks, while China... MORE

Executive Summary: PRC aid to Russia is multidomain and underpins much of Moscow’s ability to continue to wage war in Ukraine. Attempts have been made to institutionalize the Sino-Russian relationship, deepening the military aspect in particular. The relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin nevertheless... MORE