Executive Summary: The new Polish government has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s security in the wake of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Kyiv. Warsaw is a major advocate for Ukraine’s NATO membership. It calculates that Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance will be crucial in... MORE

Executive Summary: The US airstrike targeting terrorist bases in Iraq and Syria challenges Russia's Middle East dominance, prompting Moscow to reassess its strategic ties, especially with Israel. Moscow's unequivocal pro-Palestinian stance overlooks regional dynamics, alienating key players like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who oppose Hamas.... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest growth in 2023. The manufacturing output index’s increase does not reflect a proportional rise in actual production. The physical output of essential goods for arms manufacturing has revealed minimal growth over the past seven years. While some... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC’s claims over Bhutanese territory have expanded over the years, including recent large-scale construction in disputed valleys, which contradicts the 1998 agreement to maintain the status quo, challenging Bhutanese sovereignty and raising strategic concerns for India. The PRC is pushing to resolve... MORE

Executive Summary: Dong Jun's appointment as Defense Minister and changes in the PLA Rocket Force leadership mark a strategic shift towards bolstering military diplomacy, particularly with Russia, and enhancing combat and technological readiness, reflecting Dong's significant role in shaping future military strategy. The leadership overhaul... MORE

Executive Summary: New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification with the CCP... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow views Zelenskyy’s decree to devote more attention to ethnic Ukrainians inside Russia as a more serious attack on Russian statehood and identity than many in Ukraine and the West do. That perception will likely prompt Moscow to diminish the history of Ukrainian... MORE

Executive Summary The Mozambican army has declared the Islamic State affiliate active in its country effectively "defeated," with only 200 to 250 active fighters remaining. While Islamic State in Mozambique may be significantly degraded, it could capitalize upon the planned withdrawal of the Southern African... MORE

Executive Summary While Boko Haram is the most widely known security threat in Nigeria, the total number of deaths connected to violent banditry in northwestern Nigeria now rivals those caused by Boko Haram at its violent "peak" in 2015. Banditry is traditionally thought of as... MORE

Executive Summary Following a week of hostility after tit-for-tat missile and air strikes, Iran and Pakistan have deescalated tensions and normalized relations, though Jaish al-Adl—the proximate cause for the recent crisis—remains an active threat to regional stability. Jaish al-Adl is an anti-Shia Islamist militant group... MORE