Executive Summary: In September, a series of Russian drone and military incursions into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) airspace over Poland and Estonia triggered emergency consultations under Article 4 and revived debate on escalation of deterrence. The Russia–Belarus Zapad-2025 exercise revealed a shift toward precision-strike,... MORE

Executive Summary: Veterans returning from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine pose challenges not only to Russian society but also to the political elite, where the Kremlin fears returning veterans could grow into a challenge to the powers that be. Putin has announced a... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan is pursuing nuclear power cooperation with both Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), aiming to become a nuclear energy hub in Central Asia. Tashkent is hedging against risks in working with Moscow due to Russia’s weakened economic position amid international... MORE

Executive Summary: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan used the UN General Assembly to secure major agreements with U.S. companies and U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, highlighting their efforts to attract investment and strengthen international partnerships, particularly in connectivity and energy. Uzbekistan announced over $100 billion in potential... MORE

Executive Summary: The missions of 25 member states of the European Union, along with the United Kingdom, issued a joint statement on September 24, strongly condemning the Georgian government’s “baseless and damaging” statements criticizing their diplomatic missions in Georgia. The vast majority of European states... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin instituted restrictions on the civilian use of virtual private networks (VPN) and U.S.-built technology at the beginning of September, ostensibly fearing that the U.S. government is using the technology to sow internal discord in Russia. The Russian Duma approved legislation on... MORE

Executive Summary: Non-Russians in the Russian Federation are increasing their share of the country’s population despite decreasing in absolute numbers because the decline in the number of ethnic Russians is far greater. This proportional increase reflects higher fertility rates among non-Russians than among ethnic Russians... MORE

Executive Summary: On September 9, a high-level Russian delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, paid an unannounced visit to Damascus and held talks with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani. The talks focused on energy, military basing, and reconstruction, with Damascus demanding cheaper fuel... MORE

Executive Summary: The September 7 Kremlin-backed religious-nationalist procession in Moscow only drew 40,000 people, supporting the argument that right-wing activists remain a marginal force and do not pose a threat to the regime. In contrast, grassroots networks built around “war correspondents”—Russians who post information about... MORE