Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to attend the July 6–7 BRICS+ summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, due to the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s arrest warrant, highlighting Russia’s continued international isolation amid its war against Ukraine. The BRICS+ summit advanced Russia-backed initiatives... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Kazakhstan has awarded leadership of an international consortium to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant to Russian state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. At the same time, Astana is courting Chinese nuclear, uranium, and water infrastructure companies to counterbalance Russia’s role. Kazakhstan’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is experiencing a decline in morale as its war against Ukraine enters its fourth summer, with feelings of hope and pride appearing to be replaced by indifference and fear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concerns about public discontent with the war are apparent... MORE

Executive Summary: The July 10 summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Abu Dhabi marks a significant step in the ongoing peace process between the two countries. The summit reflects a broader shift in the South Caucasus, as Armenia and Azerbaijan strive for strategic autonomy rather... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian Air Force is seeing increased success in eliminating Russian aircraft and missiles, thereby opening up more opportunities for offensive air and ground operations. Ukrainian units are effectively using Western aircraft (e.g., F-16 and Mirage fighter jets) and various missile and bomb... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: Georgian Dream has detained eight prominent opposition figures ahead of the upcoming local elections, fulfilling a pre-election pledge by the honorary chairman of the ruling party, Bidzina Ivanishvili. The detentions stem from a refusal to appear before a parliamentary commission that many view... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using memory politics through state media, museums, and official narratives to glorify Cossack military tradition, attempting to merge “service” and “ancestral” conceptions of Cossack history to justify modern expansionism and legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin is investing... MORE

Executive Summary: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) announced its departure from Mali on June 6. The PMC’s operations in Africa enabled Russia to establish a network of influence on the continent and secure access to natural resources. Late-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in... MORE