Executive Summary: Russia’s evolving military strategy in the Baltic region is shifting from predictable linear offensives to deceptive and flanking maneuvers, with a possible thrust through southeastern Latvia that could strategically fracture the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Baltic defense. Municipal governance vulnerabilities in Latvia,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s plans to create a naval base on the Sudanese coast of the Red Sea have been upset by drone attacks launched on Port Sudan in early May. Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces claimed responsibility for the attack. The destruction of Port Sudan’s infrastructure... MORE

Executive Summary: Government sources report that the Kremlin is considering repositioning the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) as an ultra-nationalist party to attract war veterans and anti-immigrant groups, centralizing far-right radicalism. Far-right nationalists and religious fundamentalists do not have substantial popular support in Russia,... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Community, now the largest Russian nationalist organization, is rapidly evolving from an ideological group supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Orthodox Church into a criminal band ready to engage in violence against the Kremlin’s opponents. The Kremlin has orchestrated... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin celebrated veterans on Victory Day, portraying World War II and Russia’s war against Ukraine both as fights against Nazism to justify the full-scale invasion, boost public support, and consolidate veterans’ pro-regime sentiment. Russian President Vladimir Putin created the “Time of Heroes”... MORE

Executive Summary: The leaders of Russia’s federal subjects are handling three issues—abortion, alcohol sales, and migrant groups—so differently that people are traveling to different regions to take advantage, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin homogenizing the Russian legal field. The Kremlin could likely put an end... MORE

Executive Summary: Tashkent is positioning itself as a mediator between Taliban-led Afghanistan and the international community, advocating for integration rather than isolation since the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021. Uzbekistan aims to turn Afghanistan into a strategic trade hub, offering access to... MORE