The Party of Regions and affiliated “oligarchs” remain the most influential political force in Ukraine’s east for the time being (see accompanying article). However, the party is pressured on multiple fronts in the run-up to Ukraine’s May 25 presidential election.Removed from the government in Kyiv,... MORE

Political forces supportive of Ukraine’s unity hold the upper hand in six provinces (oblasts) that Moscow seeks to carve out as “South-Eastern Ukraine” or split off as “Novorossiya.” Following the chaotic regime change in Kyiv, pro-Ukraine forces coalesced locally to maintain or restore stability in... MORE

President Vladimir Putin and Russian diplomacy have recently invented the concept of “South-Eastern Ukraine” as a would-be political entity. Moscow promotes this idea as part of its project to dismantle the Ukrainian state through “federalization.”Following the overthrow of then-president Viktor Yanukovych by the Kyiv Maidan... MORE

On May 11, self-declared “people’s councils” purported to hold “referendums” in approximately 20 or 25 towns or parts thereof, held by armed rebels in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk provinces (Donbas) (see EDM, May 9). The organizers claimed high turnouts and an overwhelming affirmative answer to... MORE

For all their lack of capacity (let alone legitimacy) to organize any kind of voting, pro-Russia forces in Ukraine’s Donbas are proceeding with secession referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces on May 11 as scheduled.Russian President Vladimir Putin had, on May 7, offered to... MORE

As anticipated (see EDM, May 1), pro-Russia groups have failed to organize the secession referendums, planned for May 11 in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Donbas). Those marginal groups lack a social, electoral, or organizational base for holding anything resembling referendums. Their paramilitary units have... MORE

The April 17 Geneva Statement “on the situation in Ukraine” (by Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine) has proven to be stillborn. This was preordained, since the US side accepted Russia’s definition of the conflict as one “in Ukraine” between local parties,... MORE

The Geneva Joint Diplomatic Statement of April 17, 2014 (see EDM, April 30) has gone the way of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the 1997 Russia-Ukraine inter-state treaty, the 1997 and 2010 agreements on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine, and other international and bilateral documents... MORE

Russia is inadvertently helping Ukraine, the United States and the European Union to escape the trap of the April 17 Geneva Joint Diplomatic Statement “On the Situation in Ukraine” (https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224957.htm). The quadripartite statement was, in fact, dead on arrival in Geneva, as Russian President Vladimir... MORE

Pro-Russia armed groups fanned out during April 11–14 across Donetsk oblast, capturing the seats of authority in town after town: Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Makiyivka, Mariupol, Horlivka, Khartsyzk, Yenakiyeve, Zhdanivka, and several others.  This is a conflict coordinated from Moscow, designed to create faits accomplis on the... MORE