Since the start of 2022, two unexpected “black swan” events have indirectly altered last year’s calculus regarding the expected evolution of the Belarusian political crisis. First, Belarus joined the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) intervention in Kazakhstan on January 5, 2022. Second, Belarusian potassium... MORE

From January 6 through January 19, Russia and its allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) conducted a successful stabilization mission in Kazakhstan, at the latter country’s urgent request. The organization’s member states (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) may, under their treaty, undertake... MORE

On January 5, in response to the then-rapidly worsening national crisis in Kazakhstan, which was triggered by increased fuel prices resulting in popular protests sweeping the country, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev formally requested an intervention by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The following day, the... MORE

In early January, the sudden outbreak of massive anti-government protests in Kazakhstan and subsequent intervention by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) reverberated across the entire post-Soviet space, including Azerbaijan. These events on the other side of the Caspian Sea are of great importance... MORE

More than any other event since the Crimean annexation in 2014, the popular protests in Kazakhstan and the subsequent Russian-led intervention to suppress them have deeply troubled the countries of the former Soviet space. Many are now fearful that both the protests and their suppression... MORE

Diplomats naturally value dialogue; but when it comes to current relations with Moscow, the wisdom of such an approach looks dubious—particularly following the week of consecutive rounds of tough talks between Russia on the one hand and the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization... MORE

In a remarkable sign of tightening relations, Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan signed a trilateral natural gas swap deal on the sidelines of the 15th summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), in Ashgabat, on November 27, 2021. Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji noted that “Under... MORE

Many Russian analysts are dismissive of Turkey’s talk about the formation of a transnational cultural community called “Greater Turan.” They do not believe such a notion will really attract Azerbaijanis let alone Central Asians, not to speak of the Turkic peoples living in the Russian... MORE

On November 28, Kyrgyzstan held early parliamentary elections, which capped a year of hectic electoral activity—inaugurated with the January presidential vote won by then–prime minister Sadyr Japarov and continued with a nationwide constitutional referendum in April. The latest elections took place within the framework of... MORE

Street clashes in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan region have quieted down at least for the present, but in their wake, geopolitical competition there has, if anything, increased. Russia and China are assuming an ever more active role for at least three reasons: 1) the region’s location on... MORE