The showdown over Ukraine continues to keep experts guessing. On the one hand, warnings that the invasion could start at any time emanate from Washington. On the other hand, there are multiplying suggestions that such a development remains a low probability; this accumulating evidence comes... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The Belarus-Russia Union State Military Doctrine (Voyennaya Doktrina Soyuznogo Gosudarstva), signed on November 4, 2021, and released prior to the two countries’ joint military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, is notably interlinked with those maneuvers, running from... MORE

On February 3, reports appeared in the international media alleging that Russia was planning to fabricate a pretext for a renewed invasion of Ukraine. According to United States officials cited by various news outlets, Russia might try to use a fake video showing an attack... MORE

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 14 and went on to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the following day. Preceding Scholz was French President Emmanuel Macron, who met with Putin and Zelenskyy (in... MORE

In a further indication that Russia continues to build up its forces on the border with Ukraine, a convoy with Chechen internal troops has recently been spotted moving northwest, through the North Caucasus, toward the potential war zone. At the end of last month, JaziraNews’s... MORE

The security situation in the wider Black Sea region is quickly deteriorating and growing more dangerous. Six large, fully loaded amphibious assault ships (three from the Baltic Fleet and three from the Northern Fleet) sailed through the Turkish Straits into the Black Sea “for exercises”... MORE

Fifteen years ago, at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, President Vladimir Putin surprised the high-level audience with a speech that explicitly juxtaposed Russian and Western security interests. In retrospect, the tone of the presentation was argumentative rather than assertive, but Moscow added force to its... MORE

French President Emmanuel Macron held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 7 and 8, respectively. Overshadowing the talks were Russian forces staging a war scare near Ukraine’s borders. Macron is attempting a solo act,... MORE

On February 7, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Moscow and spent over five hours talking with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in an attempt to negotiate a de-escalation of the present acute security crisis over Ukraine (Kremlin.ru, February 8). France holds the rotating presidency of... MORE

Chinese Interests Come Under Pressure in Myanmar’s Insurgency Jacob Zenn China’s involvement in economic projects in Pakistan has riled ethnic-based insurgent groups, which believe their peoples’ interests are being ignored, or worse, trampled upon (Terrorism Monitor, May 7, 2021). In Myanmar, however, this trend of... MORE