Almost no one in Minsk—or indeed anywhere else—expects that the Belarusian military could repel an invasion by Russian forces. The balance of power between the two countries is simply too lopsided and Russian penetration of Belarus too large. But additionally, recent reporting strongly suggests that... MORE

Vladimir Putin started his fourth term as Russia’s president by promising ambitious new social programs (Kremlin.ru, May 7). He may be able to deliver on these promises because the price of petroleum, one of the mainstays of Russia’s state budget, has risen steadily. A barrel... MORE

Alyaksandr Lukashenka loves to deviate from a script when delivering a speech. His rhetoric frequently includes what might be termed “gaffes,” some genuine while others seemingly more calculated—a form of damage control. Thus, in his most recent address to the nation, the Belarusian leader declared... MORE

The next major battle between Russian aggressors and Ukrainian defenders may take place not in Donbas but on the waters of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait, a development that could prove even more dangerous to regional stability than earlier Russian acts of... MORE

On April 24, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka delivered his annual state-of-the-country address (Belarus Segodnya, April 25). A flamboyant public speaker, this time he set a somewhat calmer tone and delivered a speech that was so much shorter (79 minutes) than on previous occasions that some observers... MORE

Twice this past month, Russia’s Main Air Traffic Management Center provided indication that the Russian Navy planned to conduct military exercises, which would include the live fire of missiles, within Latvia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ): between April 4 and 6 (Bnn-news.com, April 3) and April... MORE

In response to Moscow’s threat to bottle up Ukrainian shipping within the shared Azov Sea, the Ukrainian government is currently considering a plan to block Russia’s use of the Danube River. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry has proposed closing to all Russian shipping the canal in the... MORE

The United States Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), whose responsibility is to enforce US sanctions against foreign countries and nationals, rolled out a new package of economic restrictions against Russia, on April 6. Following its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia has... MORE

Ukraine has been exerting considerable effort over the last several years to forge closer links across the Black Sea with Turkey, which Kyiv views as a counterbalance to Russia in the region. The two countries’ leaders have been meeting regularly of late. Turkish President Recep... MORE

In recent years, Ukraine has been fostering a national ideology that has significantly impacted the quality of relations with its western neighbors, notably Poland and Hungary. Ukrainian national ideology, on the one hand, helps it to effectively resist Russian aggression; but on the other hand,... MORE