Executive Summary:  Ethnic Chechens in Dagestan and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov have stepped up demands that Makhachkala live up to its promises to restore a Chechen district in Dagestan by the end of 2024. Doing so would likely require the Dagestani authorities to expel the... MORE

Executive Summary:  Moscow has proposed legal action to target the “Anti-Russian Separatist Movement,” an organization that, as far as journalists and analysts can deduce, does not exist. The proposal would allow the authorities to persecute Russian regionalists more aggressively, including those who are not opposed... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing, Bishkek, and Tashkent have been discussing the construction of a joint railway project for almost 30 years, which runs the risk of completely unraveling due to geopolitical and alliance changes in Central Asia. Moscow and Astana are happy with the project’s delays,... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarus remains heavily dependent on Russia for its export infrastructure, especially as its Ukrainian options have been closed since Moscow launched the full-scale invasion. Minsk is seeking alternatives to Russian railways by using the still incomplete International North-South Transport Corridor and discussing plans... MORE

Executive Summary: The FSB and other Russian intelligence agencies’ activities have transformed Cyprus into a Kremlin beachhead in Europe, going largely unnoticed. Moscow has long focused on European countries, like Cyprus, that are a part of the European Union but not NATO members, to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s dual-use Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is running into roadblocks due to technological deterioration, freeing Moscow to become more aggressive in space affairs. The Russian space industry had relied on stores of imported components to weather the first rounds of Western sanctions,... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to make China the first foreign trip of his new presidential term, signaling his need to reaffirm the strategic partnership. Russia is closely monitoring US-China and EU-China dialogues ahead of the Ukraine peace summit in July, to which... MORE

Executive Summary Russia’s crackdown on Tajiks following the March 22 Crocus City Hall massacre is likely leading to further alienation and subsequent radicalization among members of the ethnic group living in Russia. These individuals would bring these ideas with them if they are deported back... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian businesses have experienced serious losses since the beginning of the war in Ukraine due to Western sanctions, but many continue to trust the Kremlin. Some companies viewed the sanctions and the isolation of Russia as an opportunity for growth in the domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow hopes the protests in Armenia about the return of four villages to Azerbaijan will spread and force Yerevan to slow its efforts to integrate with the West. The belief that Moscow is backing these protests is having the opposite effect, prompting Yerevan... MORE