Executive Summary: The Kremlin has released a series of “leaks” implying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to freeze hostilities in his war against Ukraine. The release likely occurred now as an attempt to derail preparations for the coming Ukraine peace summit this summer... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia and Belarus announced a joint tactical nuclear exercise to signal to Western countries that deploying their troops in Ukraine will lead to nuclear escalation. The general staffs of the Russian and Belarusian armed forces are preparing tactical nuclear strikes on targets located... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is currently purging numerous military officers and MoD officials in an alleged “anti-corruption” campaign. The political motivation for these attacks is unclear, though this could be an effort to find scapegoats responsible for Russia’s troubles in the... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian Defense Ministry posted and then took down a plan for Moscow to unilaterally redraw sea borders in the Baltic region, alarming and then reassuring observers inclined to dismiss this as bureaucratic infighting. The document as first posted is consistent with Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian propagandists believe that new Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov’s ultimate loyalty to Putin and absence of corruption scandals puts him in a prime position to accomplish the tasks set before him. Putin’s move to reorganize his cabinet demonstrates a shift in the... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is pushing for BRICS to collaborate more actively in the grain trade to undermine the West’s ability to influence critical decisions, such as suppliers of grain. The strategy continues to target Ukraine, one of the world’s leading grain exporters, and seeks to... MORE

Executive Summary: Uzbekistan has been dealing with severe energy shortages over the past few years due to issues in gas production and a transition to using more imported gas for energy needs. Tashkent has signed major agreements with Ashgabat and Moscow for gas imports, in... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unwilling to trust anyone outside his inner circle and failed to promote younger politicians–effectively demanding that Russia’s aging political elite continue serving in government. Andrei Belousov, the newly appointed defense minister, is expected to resolve military overspending... MORE

Executive Summary: On May 12, Moscow replaced Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Russian economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment is likely geared at optimizing military spending and improving the war economy, as the Kremlin struggles with unpredictable arms costs. The... MORE

Executive Summary: A month ago, Moscow feared it was losing its influence across the South Caucasus, most dramatically by pulling its “peacekeepers” early from Azerbaijan and some border guards from Armenia. Russia never lost the leverage that history, geography, and policy gave it and has... MORE