Executive summary: Russia’s strategic interest in the Republic of Georgia has been reenergized as Tbilisi drifts away from the European path and abstains from joining Western sanctions against Russia. A fundamental factor in Moscow’s current view of Georgia is the former’s lack of effective leverage... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is strengthening its national cyber defense by requiring commercial organizations to connect to a unified cybersecurity system. This initiative builds on the “Sovereign Internet” law to centralize cybersecurity control and mitigate rising cyber threats. Russia’s cybersecurity sector is facing talent shortages due... MORE

Executive Summary:  Russian military losses typically have affected Russia and its neighbors at home even more than Russian victories. Moscow is now worried that the ouster of Bashar al-Assad will influence the post-Soviet space and Muslim regions in Russia. To reduce these dangers, the Kremlin... MORE

Executive Summary Russian hybrid attacks targeting critical undersea infrastructure (CUI), particularly fiber-optic cables, have surged in the Baltic and Arctic regions since 2021. These disruptions threaten essential communication channels and expose the vulnerabilities of Northern Europe’s infrastructure. Incidents in 2023 and 2024 involving Chinese vessels... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is planning extensive events for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II (WWII), using historical memory as a tool to legitimize its Ukraine invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared 2025 the “Year of the Defender of the Fatherland,” and... MORE

Executive Summary: On January 29, the Republic of Georgia ceased participation in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) after the latter demanded new parliamentary elections and the release of political prisoners. Tbilisi’s exit from PACE threatens its eligibility for EU candidacy. The... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s need to supply its invasion forces in Ukraine, its rapid shift of trade away from Europe toward Asia due to sanctions, and slashed investments have put unprecedented strains on Russian railways. China will seek alternative routes for trade with Europe, using domestic... MORE

Executive Summary: Pro-Kremlin analysts look upon possible negotiations with the United States about the fate of Ukraine only from a position of strength. Moscow’s demands, however, clearly do not correspond with its real capabilities. Russian military analysts push for negotiations by relying on Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: Mercenaries have existed since ancient times but have evolved into modern private military and security companies (PMSCs) focusing on training, logistics, and protection, especially in Western practices. Russian private military companies (PMCs) and Chinese private security companies (PSCs), however, operate differently from both... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly using the Cossack identity to justify its war in Ukraine, portraying them as liberators of Russian land. The Cossack’s use of Orthodox symbolism and historical narratives reinforce their role in neo-imperial mythmaking. The All-Russian Cossack Society highlights Cossack military... MORE