Executive Summary: Russia is experiencing a decline in morale as its war against Ukraine enters its fourth summer, with feelings of hope and pride appearing to be replaced by indifference and fear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concerns about public discontent with the war are apparent... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Roman Bezsmertny is a Ukrainian diplomat who participated in nearly 60 rounds of talks with Russian representatives during the Minsk peace process. His experience and advice offer unique insight into Moscow’s negotiating tactics. This holds immediate implications for the... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing has tracked Russia’s response to what it perceives as financial warfare from the United States and its allies and has begun mitigating its vulnerabilities and building an offensive toolkit in response. Chinese experts take confidence from Moscow’s resilience in face of more... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using memory politics through state media, museums, and official narratives to glorify Cossack military tradition, attempting to merge “service” and “ancestral” conceptions of Cossack history to justify modern expansionism and legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin is investing... MORE

Executive Summary: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) announced its departure from Mali on June 6. The PMC’s operations in Africa enabled Russia to establish a network of influence on the continent and secure access to natural resources. Late-Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion in... MORE

(Part Two) Executive Summary: Kazakhstan has selected Russia’s Rosatom to construct its first post-Soviet nuclear power plant (NPP), despite earlier indications that China’s CNNC would win the bid. A second plant may still be awarded to CNNC. Environmental risks, particularly regarding Kazakhstan’s nuclear legacy, the... MORE

Executive Summary: Serious crime has risen to its highest level since 2010 in Russia because of the influx of weapons from Moscow’s war against Ukraine, as well as the Kremlin’s increased focus on prosecuting corruption. The influx of weapons into Russia, brought into the country... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fake readiness to negotiate the end of Moscow’s war against Ukraine amid its relentless attacks on Ukraine appears to be coming to a breaking point as the United States continues its efforts to build a peace agreement. Continued North... MORE

Executive Summary: On July 4, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) lost all off-site power supply due to nearby Russian drone strikes for the ninth time since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear corporation and operator of Zaporizhzhia NPP since March 2022, has expressed... MORE