Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted various strategies to fill the ranks of his army to avoid the anger and emigration among Russians that mobilization would provoke, including offering substantial signing bonuses. Continuing to increase bonuses highlights the declining support among Russians for... MORE

Executive Summary: Baku announced in August its application to join BRICS to align with major developing economies and strengthen political relationships on the global stage. Joining BRICS will create new opportunities for Azerbaijan in the transportation sector. In recent years, Azerbaijan has strived to become... MORE

Executive Summary: Just days before the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Kazakhstan announced that it will likely not consider applying to join the group in the foreseeable future, citing the complexity of gaining membership and the bloc’s future prospects. China and Russia, two key... MORE

Executive Summary: Poland announced plans to build fortifications on its border with Russia’s Kaliningrad oblast and Belarus, with construction of the “Eastern Shield” defensive line to be completed by 2028. Poland is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) top military spender by percent of its... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is now facing a problem that did not exist in Soviet times and one that in the years since 1991, Moscow has denied exists now: the appearance in Moscow and other major cities of ethnic ghettos consisting of members of Central Asian... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Moscow, highlighting the continued significance of the organization for Belarusian foreign policy. For Minsk, the CIS is  increasingly attractive, as the logistical semi-blockade on Belarus’s western border has prevented it... MORE

Executive Summary: The pro-Kremlin Valdai Discussion Club conference on Sino-Russian relations on October 14–15 demonstrated Moscow’s goals of building a new world order together with the so-called “world majority” as a result of Russia’s declining status on the world stage. Even analysts close to the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukraine has intensified its behind-the-scenes multilateral political maneuvering, as evidenced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s promotion of his own victory plan, despite little change on the battlefield. Zelenskyy’s proposal emphasizes that only a bold stride toward victory can make his plan feasible, but... MORE

Executive Summary: Trade between Russia and Türkiye has dropped significantly in 2024 due to Western sanctions, indicating a weakening economic partnership as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to isolate it from global partners. Ankara is increasingly aligning with Western powers, as evidenced by the postponement... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has unveiled his Victory Plan to stave off incremental defeat under Russian assault. The plan calls for offsetting the war’s imbalance with a surge of Western military assistance. Some major parts of the plan are in classified annexes to... MORE