Executive Summary: Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the... MORE

Executive Summary: The last year of Russia’s war in Ukraine saw a number of turning points, including both Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory and its massive drone attacks on Russian facilities, as well as an expansion in Russian aggression. Many in Kyiv, Moscow, and the... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s vocational education reforms, designed to address a skills gap, have been distorted at the local level, with uneven implementation and coercive measures intensifying stress on students. The centralized power structure of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) incentivizes local officials to... MORE

Executive Summary: A new campaign, “Operation Winter,” has been announced to mobilize public security officials in the wake of deadly attacks across the People’s Republic of China. The operation seeks to mobilize extra human resources and integrated technology to enhance the party-state’s apparatus of “preventive... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping faces mounting challenges to his legitimacy from multiple directions, with economic troubles, mass killings, and corruption in the military eroding his grip on power. A spate of unrelated violent incidents and rising social protests across the People’s Republic of China (PRC)... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia remains committed to its long-term strategic goals as it continues its war in Ukraine, including undermining US global influence, fracturing Trans-Atlantic unity, and aligning with authoritarian regimes, such as Iran and North Korea. Russia’s reliance on outdated stockpiles and unconventional resupply shows... MORE

Executive Summary: Centralizing reforms to the Ministry of State Security probably constitute the most important development in China’s civilian intelligence system since its establishment in 1983. These reforms instituted “vertical leadership,” under which the MSS is empowered to control local bureaus’ personnel affairs, budgets, and... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is increasingly enacting restrictive laws and policies under the vague definition of “destructive ideology” that target not only political dissent but also aspects of everyday life in an attempt to align society with “traditional” Orthodox values. The Kremlin’s policies and rhetoric,... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow is relying more heavily on local ethnic militias  made up of immigrants to ensure order in Russian cities as the war in Ukraine continues and more Russians are sent to the front. Moscow is allowing Bishkek to play a role in supervising... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has used various measures short of a new mobilization to fill the ranks of its dwindling army in Ukraine and appears ready to force protesters into the army and send them to fight. In Dagestan, a republic that has often been bellwether... MORE