Executive Summary: Tbilisi’s ruling Georgian Dream party stated the possibility of returning the separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of their campaign for the parliamentary elections. Moscow has not expressed support for reintegrating the Russian controlled regions into Georgia but alternatively for... MORE

Executive Summary: Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant... MORE

Executive Summary: In June 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) introduced additional restrictions on fertilizer exports, sharply reducing urea exports by 83 percent compared to the previous year. This move aims to stabilize domestic prices and safeguard food security, but has disrupted global fertilizer... MORE

Executive Summary: Xi Jinping’s address on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) highlighted risks and challenges ahead and included a lengthy segment on unification with Taiwan. The speech was accompanied by relatively muted celebrations on October 1, which... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian cabinet is in support of a Duma proposal to allow the governors of oblasts, krais, and republics to form their own militias to deal with natural disasters and military interventions, such as the Ukrainian advancement into Kursk oblast. Moscow is confident... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Russian State Duma announced that it conceptually supports a new law to ban “the childfree ideology,” that is, the conscious refusal to have children in Russia, in an effort to “preserve family values.” In practice, these measures are not capable of improving... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is more openly highlighting the significant role Cossacks are taking in its war against Ukraine and within Russian society through the media and promoting cultural and militaristic Cossack events and organizations. The Kremlin’s transition to promoting the Cossack narrative versus its previous... MORE

Executive Summary: As veterans from Moscow’s war in Ukraine return to Russia and are lauded as the “new elite,” crime rates are drastically increasing, creating a surge in violence across Russian society. The Kremlin’s loss of the monopoly on violence, combined with reduced numbers of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war in Ukraine continues to cause tremendous casualties, rapidly depleting Russia’s supply of manpower.  Despite stable... MORE

Executive Summary: Bidzina Ivanishvili, the informal leader of Georgia, made a recent statement promising an apology to puppet regime of so-called South Ossetia controlled by Russiafor the war in 2008, placing the blame for Russia’s war on Georgia itself. The Georgian opposition and general public... MORE