Latest Articles about Military/Security
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Gagauzia Now a Bellwether of Putin’s Broader Military Intentions
Over the last 30 years, Moscow has frequently sought to use the Christian Turkic Gagauz in Moldova, along with separatist Transnistria, as leverage to prevent or reverse Chisinau’s moves toward further integration with Romania and Europe (see EDM, January 27). But in recent days, with... MORE
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Drones Over Ukraine: How Are UAVs Affecting Battlefield Operations on Both Sides?
The war in Ukraine has showcased the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) by both sides, a capability that has enabled much more extensive combined-arms operations by their respective militaries. Drones have been ever-present both at the platoon–battalion level as well as in operational-strategic missions,... MORE
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Assessing the Risks of Nuclear Confrontation Over Ukraine (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Moscow’s official statements since February 24, 2022, concerning possible nuclear escalation should the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) directly intervene in the Russo-Ukrainian war represent a deliberate policy of strategic deterrence. Possible escalation... MORE
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Assessing the Risks of Nuclear Confrontation Over Ukraine (Part One)
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Western governments and analysts have periodically expressed fears that the Kremlin might try to escalate by using nuclear weapons. This anxiety stems directly from Moscow’s own nuclear threat rhetoric: indeed, Putin’s... MORE
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Armenia May Recognize Karabakh as Legally Azerbaijani Only if Russia Retains de Facto Control
It is possible to argue that the weightiest consequence of the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in September–November 2020 was not Baku’s victory over Armenian forces but rather the return of Russian troops to the region in the form of “peacekeepers” in Karabakh (see... MORE
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No Retreat Permitted for Putin’s Hapless Conscripts in Ukraine
In a throwback to Stalinist-era practices, Russian forces in Ukraine may have been using some of their own detachments as “barrier troops”—a term originating in World War II for so-called anti-retreat forces (Gazeta.ua, March 11; T.me/SBUkr, March 12). The deployment of such units to deter... MORE
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Cossacks and the Battle for Donbas
Given the ostensible ties of Cossacks to the Don region, one might reasonably expect Russia’s state-organized Cossack movement to play a significant role in the battle for Ukrainian Donbas. And indeed, such expectations were borne out in a new report that “in recent times, in... MORE
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No Feasible End-Game for Russia in Badly Mismanaged War
Predictions of a decisive offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas on the one hand, and speculation about peace talks on the other hand, have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary in recent days—however, neither makes much sense. Russian artillery... MORE
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Islamic State Strategies and Propaganda in Iraq Raise Prospects for Resurgence
The Islamic State (IS) province in Iraq (Wilayah Iraq) stabilized its operations in 2020 and increased them in 2021 (Jihad Analytics, January 24; Jihad Analytics, February 4). After the fall of IS as a territorial entity and the death of the previous caliph, Abubakar al-Baghdadi,... MORE
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Germany Continues Crackdown on Kurdish PKK Leaders
On April 6, the Oberlandesgericht (higher regional court) of Frankfurt opened proceedings in the counter-terrorism prosecution of an alleged Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK) leader in Germany, who was identified as “Abdullah Ö.” The 58-year old Kurdish Turkish citizen was accused not only... MORE