Executive Summary: Neither Russia nor Ukraine will win or lose the war solely based on what happens at the front, rather, both Moscow and Kyiv seek to bring the war home to the other to gain an advantage. Each has attacked the other with bombs... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian government passed a controversial law to strengthen mobilization as the military’s need to recruit soldiers grows in the face of an anticipated Russian offensive. As the war continues, Kyiv may have to turn to more extreme measures, such as mobilizing its... MORE

Executive Summary: The provision of US-made ATACMS and other Western long-range capabilities looks to enable Ukraine to strike military targets in Russian-occupied Crimea. The passage of the long-delayed US aid package has given Kyiv’s other Western partners momentum to commit more support to Ukraine as... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 19, Armenia agreed to hand four contested villages back to Azerbaijan and continue talks on four more based on the 1991 Alma-Ata accord. Yerevan hailed this as the first step in improving bilateral talks, Western countries welcomed it as a step... MORE

Executive Summary: Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus... MORE

Executive Summary: On April 16, Russia began withdrawing its peacekeeping troops from Karabakh—18 months before their deployment officially ends. This marks the first instance that Russian armed units have left the territory of a post-Soviet state voluntarily and earlier than officially planned. The Kremlin’s withdrawal... MORE

Executive Summary: Finland’s accession to NATO one year ago marked a significant fracture in Russian-Finnish relations, which have declined precipitously as Finland pledges consistent support to Ukraine. Helsinki and Kyiv signed a recent defense agreement that includes long-term military and financial assistance to build on... MORE

Executive Summary: Strengthened Western resolve to roll back Moscow’s invasion is beginning to coincide more strongly with the interests of the “world majority” in seeking renewed global stability. The approval of the US aid package to Ukraine could alter the course of war, and a... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian forces have enjoyed a string of successes in targeting energy facilities and military installations within Russia and the occupied territories. Kyiv’s “de-naftification” of Russia reflects Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Moscow, further enflaming societal discontent with Putin’s Kremlin.... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow plans to build a network of drone bases along the entire Northern Sea Route to monitor threats and support expansive Russian claims to the Arctic. The Kremlin initiated the project based on what it has learned about drones during its war against... MORE