Executive Summary: President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, nicknamed “President Wagner,” of the Central African Republic (CAR) welcomed the Wagner Group in 2018 but is now “in the process of diversifying its relations.” Wagner’s influence in the CAR has waned following the Prigozhin mutiny despite reassurances from Russian... MORE

Executive Summary: Support for Russian presidential candidate Boris Nadezhdin indicates readiness among Russians to oppose the war openly, reflecting discontent with both Putin and ongoing conflicts and motivating the Kremlin to regain support. The Kremlin has linked war benefits to everyday needs, portraying destruction as... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help Ukraine. Putin’s tactical aim is to torpedo Western aid to Ukraine until a potential Trump... MORE

Executive Summary: The new Polish government has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s security in the wake of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s visit to Kyiv. Warsaw is a major advocate for Ukraine’s NATO membership. It calculates that Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance will be crucial in... MORE

Executive Summary: The US airstrike targeting terrorist bases in Iraq and Syria challenges Russia's Middle East dominance, prompting Moscow to reassess its strategic ties, especially with Israel. Moscow's unequivocal pro-Palestinian stance overlooks regional dynamics, alienating key players like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who oppose Hamas.... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest growth in 2023. The manufacturing output index’s increase does not reflect a proportional rise in actual production. The physical output of essential goods for arms manufacturing has revealed minimal growth over the past seven years. While some... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC’s claims over Bhutanese territory have expanded over the years, including recent large-scale construction in disputed valleys, which contradicts the 1998 agreement to maintain the status quo, challenging Bhutanese sovereignty and raising strategic concerns for India. The PRC is pushing to resolve... MORE

Executive Summary: Dong Jun's appointment as Defense Minister and changes in the PLA Rocket Force leadership mark a strategic shift towards bolstering military diplomacy, particularly with Russia, and enhancing combat and technological readiness, reflecting Dong's significant role in shaping future military strategy. The leadership overhaul... MORE

Executive Summary: New National Security legislation, which emulates recent PRC laws, and the potential torture of a witness in the ongoing trial of Jimmy Lai, is characteristic of the erosion of legal norms in Hong Kong as it moves towards full unification with the CCP... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow views Zelenskyy’s decree to devote more attention to ethnic Ukrainians inside Russia as a more serious attack on Russian statehood and identity than many in Ukraine and the West do. That perception will likely prompt Moscow to diminish the history of Ukrainian... MORE