Executive Summary: China and Russia have agreed to form a strategic partnership in the Arctic for economic development, exploitation of mineral resources, increased use of the Northern Sea Route, and military cooperation against the West. In response to the signing of this strategic partnership, Canada... MORE

Executive Summary: The first anniversary of the war in Gaza has revealed the near-total disappearance of Russia’s influence in the Middle East, as it has not been able to partner with those averse to US positions. Moscow hopes to exploit the shift in international attention... MORE

Executive Summary: The PRC’s strategic use of and reluctance to establish military hotlines reflect a calculated approach to escalation risk, which can be seen in crises ranging from the accidental bombing of its embassy in Belgrade in 1999 to the present day. There is a... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented a “victory plan” to the Joe Biden administration and two US presidential candidates. The plan envisages arming Ukraine adequately for negotiating “peace through strength” with Moscow as well as strengthening economic sanctions on Russia. The military situation, damaged... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow released the draft proposal for Russia’s federal budget for 2025 and 2026–2027, which shows that the national defense budget will increase significantly from previous years, especially in comparison to the period before its war against Ukraine. For 2023 and 2024, Russia’s military... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian cabinet is in support of a Duma proposal to allow the governors of oblasts, krais, and republics to form their own militias to deal with natural disasters and military interventions, such as the Ukrainian advancement into Kursk oblast. Moscow is confident... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by expanding the list of conditions that would justify such a measure. These updates are intended to serve as a warning to the West and legitimize... MORE

Executive Summary: The Saimaa Canal, linking Lake Saimaa to the Gulf of Finland via Russian territory, is becoming a flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between Moscow and Helsinki and, more generally, between Russia and NATO. Both Russia and Finland have cut back their use of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is more openly highlighting the significant role Cossacks are taking in its war against Ukraine and within Russian society through the media and promoting cultural and militaristic Cossack events and organizations. The Kremlin’s transition to promoting the Cossack narrative versus its previous... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 that are neither radical nor surprising. The timing of Putin’s heavy hints and direct threats is indicative of his real intent for what he plans for his war in Ukraine.... MORE