*To read Part One, please click here. President Barack Obama’s administration seems to pursue two contradictory goals: support Ukraine’s sovereignty and security in general terms but, at the same time, seek a short-term compromise that might satisfy Russia in Ukraine’s east. Preoccupied with “legacy” issues... MORE

US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland completed another round of shuttle diplomacy in Kyiv and Moscow (June 22–24), following up on her visits to the two capitals in April and May, on direct instructions from the White House. This effort will undoubtedly continue after... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. Newly entrenched on the Crimean peninsula, Russia has appropriated the title to large parts of Ukraine’s continental shelf and exclusive economic zone (EEZ). According to the treaty on Crimea’s accession to Russia (a constitutional act in Russia), “the... MORE

Aspirationally at least, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is transitioning from reassurance measures to a more serious deterrence posture on the Alliance’s “Eastern flank” vis-à-vis Russia. Decisions in this regard will be finalized down to the wire of NATO’s summit in Warsaw (July 8–9).... MORE

The top leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine (the “Normandy Group”) conferred by telephone on the night of May 23–24, at Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s initiative. Poroshenko sought an endorsement of Kyiv’s proposal for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland held talks, in Moscow, with Russian presidential advisor Vladislav Surkov, on May 17–18 (see Part One). According to the United States government’s official account of the meeting, the talks focused on... MORE

Informal discussions are sputtering along between Washington and Moscow over implementation of the Minsk armistice in Ukraine. This bilateral process originated in May 2015 as an accompaniment to the Barack Obama administration’s decision to seek Russia’s “help” on Syria. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland... MORE

Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine held an expanded meeting of their foreign affairs ministers and senior staffs on May 11 in Berlin (the “Normandy” format). Two overlapping issues topped the meeting’s agenda: possible “elections” in the Russian-controlled Donetsk-Luhansk territory, and policing those proposed elections to... MORE

The “Normandy” powers’ (Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia) latest meeting, in Berlin, on May 11, which failed to address Ukraine’s concerns, has stiffened Kyiv’s refusal to go along with local “elections” in the Donetsk and Luhansk “peoples’ republics” (DPR, LPR). That territory is Ukrainian de jure... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Although its power seems firmly entrenched, Vlad Plahotniuc’s government needs some external legitimacy and urgent financial support. Romania seems to be the only possible recourse at this time (see Parts One... MORE