The showdown over Ukraine continues to keep experts guessing. On the one hand, warnings that the invasion could start at any time emanate from Washington. On the other hand, there are multiplying suggestions that such a development remains a low probability; this accumulating evidence comes... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The Belarus-Russia Union State Military Doctrine (Voyennaya Doktrina Soyuznogo Gosudarstva), signed on November 4, 2021, and released prior to the two countries’ joint military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, is notably interlinked with those maneuvers, running from... MORE

On February 7, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Moscow and spent over five hours talking with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in an attempt to negotiate a de-escalation of the present acute security crisis over Ukraine (Kremlin.ru, February 8). France holds the rotating presidency of... MORE

Russia’s conventional Armed Forces have deployed approximately 30,000 personnel to Belarus for the joint strategic-operational military exercise Allied Resolve (Soyuznaya Reshimost) 2022, scheduled for February 10–20, by far eclipsing any previous deployment to the country since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 (see... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. After the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) predictably rebuked Russia’s maximalist proposals for new security guarantees, President Vladimir Putin promised a “military-technical response. Some in the Russian military expert community have suggested that these... MORE

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka annually convenes a meeting devoted to the major tasks of the state border service. During the latest such meeting, on January 24, he unexpectedly responded to Zenon Poznyak’s assertion that Belarus was being militarily occupied by Russia (Pool Pervogo, January 24).... MORE

Russia’s Armed Forces continue to arrive in Belarus for the bilateral large-scale military exercise Soyuznaya Reshimost (Allied Resolve) 2022, officially scheduled for February 10–20. These deployments, which add to the wider Russian force buildup in proximity to Ukraine’s borders (see EDM, January 26), involves moving... MORE

On December 17, 2021, Russia published draft “proposals” on security guarantees with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States. Moscow expressed dissatisfaction with NATO’s eastward enlargement, Western assistance to Ukraine, the deployment of strike weapons in countries bordering Russia, as well as... MORE

On January 28, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka delivered his state of the country address to the Belarusian parliament (YouTube, January 28). This is an annual event, though, in 2021, he skipped it altogether. This last speech lasted 2 hours and 36 minutes; in addition, Lukashenka spent... MORE

On Wednesday, January 26, the United States’ ambassador in Moscow, John Sullivan, personally delivered a memorandum to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs containing the official US reply to earlier Russian demands on security guarantees. Simultaneously, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) handed over to... MORE