Uncertainty hangs over Belarus’s geopolitical situation. Will the Belarusian army eventually join Russia’s war effort? Will those issuing Western sanctions distinguish between Russia and Belarus? Are there any prospects whatsoever in mending fences with the West? Thus far, no definitive responses to these questions can... MORE

Between April 8 and 18, Chatham House conducted its ninth online survey of Belarusian urbanites since August 2020. According to that latest poll, 40 percent of Belarusians do not support Russia’s war with Ukraine, whereas 32 percent do. “Since our sample focuses only on the... MORE

The authorities’ crackdown on the massive 2020 post-election protests resulted in a cardinal change to Belarus’s international relations and its regional security nexus. From aspiring to be a middle ground between Russia and the European Union and even a would-be Switzerland (see EDM, November 18,... MORE

The predominant feature of Belarus’s current situation vis-à-vis its neighbors is uncertainty. Will Belarus eventually participate in Russia’s military operation in Ukraine? Will Belarus retain its statehood or fall victim to Russia’s expansionism? No definitive responses to these questions exist, possibly even in the minds... MORE

According to a January 2022 forecast published by the World Bank, the Belarusian economy would contract by 2.8 percent over the course of the year. But in April, the international financial institution sharply revised down its estimate to a drop of 6.5 percent. The April... MORE

While the Belarusian opposition insists that President Alyaksandr Lukashenka is unworthy of attention because he no longer has anything to offer to the collective West (YouTube, May 2), opposition leader and 2020 presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is seen navigating the corridors of power in Europe... MORE

In Warsaw, on April 26, the head of the non-governmental organization Belarusian Analytical Workroom, Andrei Vardomatsky, described the outcome of his group’s telephone poll of 1,000 Belarusians conducted in mid-March. Of those surveyed, just 24 percent pinned responsibility for sparking the war in Ukraine on... MORE

As Russia continues to try to subjugate Ukraine in an unprovoked war of aggression, Belarus has endeavored to keep its options open (see EDM, April 18). Further evidence of this policy from Minsk came out on April 14, when Rikard Jozwiak, a Prague-based journalist of... MORE

The Russo-Ukrainian war has cast doubt on the sustainability of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) “Northern Corridor” because of mounting Western sanctions on this overland route’s key links—Russia and Belarus (see EDM, April 8, 18). The growing vulnerability of the Northern Corridor, which... MORE

In a store at one of Minsk’s shopping malls that sells Russian-made t-shirts decorated with a “Z,” the symbol of the Russian military offensive against Ukraine, the shop owner admitted to a journalist that she wholeheartedly backed Russia’s President Vladimir Putin but “we support the... MORE