On September 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved the country’s new National Security Strategy, entitled “Human Security—the State’s Security” (“Bezpeka Lyudyny—Bezpeka Krayiny”) (President.gov.ua, September 14). Generally speaking, the document represents a broad view of national security concerns—encompassing everything from responses to climate change, demography, and... MORE

Russian analysts fail to recognize that Warsaw no longer views the Intermarium—a historical term that today refers to the lands “in between” Russia and the West and the Baltic and Black Seas—as it did in the 1920s and 1930s but rather conceives it as a... MORE

A scandal surrounding the alleged “betrayal” by a high-ranking official of the presidential administration is rapidly gaining momentum in Ukraine. The situation curiously concerns the detention of 33 mercenaries from the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner Group, in Belarus, on July 29. According to... MORE

Despite some disruptions to this year’s military training schedule caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (see EDM, April 21, 22), the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to hold their annual capstone strategic-operational exercise on September 15–26. “Kavkaz 2020” (“Caucasus 2020”) will feature large-scale drills spread across... MORE

On August 28, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka threatened to redirect all of his country’s trade flows as well as the transit of foreign goods across its territory from Lithuanian ports to Ust-Luga and Primorsk, in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast, if Europe were to impose anti-Belarus sanctions... MORE

Belarus is not Ukraine either now or should Moscow try to annex it, Russian analysts are warning. It is far more integrated as a society than Ukraine is, with far fewer regional, linguistic or even religious divisions than exist in Ukraine; and it is far... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. Elements of the Transnistria conflict-conservation model are taking shape in Ukraine’s Donbas conflict theater, with moves to recast Russia’s state-on-state aggression as an inner-Ukrainian conflict. The July 22 enhanced ceasefire agreement and the preconditions just confirmed for holding... MORE

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, his actions deeply divided Russian nationalists and many other Russians as well; but the Kremlin leader was able to overcome that discord by annexing Crimea and creating what many have referred to as “the Crimean consensus” in Russia.... MORE

The weather in July brought rain to Crimea—but still not enough to save the peninsula from its severe multi-year drought. That same month, the volume of freshwater in Crimea’s reservoirs decreased by almost 8.5 million cubic meters. By August, the amount of reservoir water left... MORE

“Frozen” is a Western mischaracterization of Russia’s protracted conflict undertakings against Moldova in Transnistria, against Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and now of the desired end to Russia’s intervention in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas. Those conflicts never “froze” in a political sense—not even after the... MORE