It is still difficult to figure out what sorts of conclusions President Vladimir Putin drew from the long meeting he held with US Secretary of State John Kerry two weeks ago (May 12), in Sochi (see EDM, May 19). But the recent behavior of top... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. The armistice signed in Minsk on February 12, 2015, (Minsk Two agreement) opens the way for staging local elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) and the possible validation of those elections’ outcome by the... MORE

The possible international recognition of “elections” staged in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) is one of the major innovations of the Minsk Two armistice agreement on Ukraine. It is Moscow’s innovation, with Germany and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe... MORE

Summer is the best time for major offensive military action in the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk provinces) of eastern Ukraine. In the spring and autumn, long periods of bad weather turn unpaved roads and plains into a mud quagmire (Rasputitsa), seriously hampering troop maneuverability... MORE

The Moscow Patriarchate is rapidly losing influence in Ukraine and may be dissolving from below. These trends could open the way to the formation of a single autocephalous Ukrainian Orthodox Church, independent of Moscow, and undermine the influence of Patriarch Kirill and his Church at... MORE

Ukrainian military spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, told a press conference on May 17 that two Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) personnel were arrested by government forces 15 kilometers from Luhansk. The details surrounding the detentions are important to understand Russian actions in southeastern Ukraine. Since the outset... MORE

On May 12, the Russian-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DPR, LPR) jointly presented their proposals for changing Ukraine’s Constitution. Their documents avoid using the terms “DPR” and “LPR,” even as they rapidly consolidate their state structures and armies under Russia’s protection. From that position... MORE

Moscow, Berlin, some other Western European capitals, and most recently, US Secretary of State John Kerry are growing eager to see the Minsk Two agreement’s political phase starting in Ukraine. The Minsk Contact Group’s Working Groups have been launched, inaugurating that political phase (see EDM,... MORE

A new format of negotiations between the Ukrainian government and the Moscow-controlled “people’s republics” began operating on May 14 in Minsk (Osce.org, Interfax, Ukrinform, May 14). Four specialized Working Groups have now been launched, with a view to implementing the military, political, economic, and humanitarian... MORE

On May 12, friends and supporters of the murdered opposition figure Boris Nemtsov published a report based on his work to uncover Russian military involvement in the war in Ukraine. The Nemtsov report, “Putin. Voina” (Putin. War), offers 64 pages and eleven chapters assessing the... MORE