The imperfect congruence of ethnic and political borders in the South Caucasus is the primary cause of the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But it is also a major reason why both the participants in that fight as well as outside powers routinely focus... MORE

Chechnya and Ingushetia saw a surprise surge in clashes between government forces and rebels in recent weeks. The government side has suffered casualties for the first time in months. It is too early to say if this uptick in violence represents a lasting trend or... MORE

The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to accelerate in Russia: during the past week, the high mark in daily infections moved from 15,000 to 17,500, of which about a third were registered in Moscow. The Kremlin still asserts that the situation is under control, but its... MORE

Does Turkish Withdrawal from Morek Base Signal Renewed Conflict in Idlib?  John Foulkes On October 20, Turkish forces withdrew from the Morek observation post, the country’s largest base located north of the city of Hama near the border with Syria’s northwestern Idlib province (Syrian Observatory... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has, in practice, achieved and maintained sovereignty in military affairs for Belarus vis-à-vis Russia (see below). These gains—for Belarus and neighboring... MORE

With the election in the United States less than three weeks away, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a surprise strategic concession to the Donald Trump administration—apparently against the consensus opinion of Russia’s military and diplomatic bureaucracy. The Kremlin proposal looks designed to help US President... MORE

On October 6, Russia’s Northern Fleet again tested the new anti-ship 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile, launching it from the White Sea. The high-profile weapons system is one of several hypersonic missiles under development referred to by President Vladimir Putin in his address to the... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s interests in Belarus at this stage may be categorized as status quo–oriented interests and those going beyond the status quo; the latter category clearly prevails in the political, institutional, and... MORE

Global warming—which left the Northern Sea Route ice-free this year for longer than at any point in recorded history (Barents Observer, October 7)—is prompting Moscow to devote ever more attention to security issues in that region relative to trade along a route Russia has traditionally... MORE

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent lengthy interview (Komsomolskaya Pravda, October 14) stirred deep concerns in the Republic of Moldova. Local media outlets underlined, in particular, Lavrov’s accusation that the United States is attempting to create “an abscess” in Moldova by pushing for the total... MORE