Executive Summary: Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead on July 7, reportedly due to suicide, just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin fired him from the position. The active replacement of Russian elites has been a regular occurrence in Russia since the... MORE

Executive Summary: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, harsh sanctions, growing awareness among North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states of Russian intelligence tactics, and enhanced counterintelligence operations have made the Kremlin’s traditional information-gathering methods nearly impossible. Following widespread expulsions of Russian diplomats... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine aimed to reassert dominance over the former Soviet space, but Ukraine’s resistance and sustained Western support have instead weakened Moscow’s influence in the region. Moscow’s war against Ukraine has led the former Soviet republics to pursue... MORE

Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin was unable to attend the July 6–7 BRICS+ summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, due to the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s arrest warrant, highlighting Russia’s continued international isolation amid its war against Ukraine. The BRICS+ summit advanced Russia-backed initiatives... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary: Kazakhstan has awarded leadership of an international consortium to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant to Russian state-owned nuclear corporation Rosatom. At the same time, Astana is courting Chinese nuclear, uranium, and water infrastructure companies to counterbalance Russia’s role. Kazakhstan’s... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia is experiencing a decline in morale as its war against Ukraine enters its fourth summer, with feelings of hope and pride appearing to be replaced by indifference and fear. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concerns about public discontent with the war are apparent... MORE

We are publishing this piece because Roman Bezsmertny is a Ukrainian diplomat who participated in nearly 60 rounds of talks with Russian representatives during the Minsk peace process. His experience and advice offer unique insight into Moscow’s negotiating tactics. This holds immediate implications for the... MORE

Executive Summary: Beijing has tracked Russia’s response to what it perceives as financial warfare from the United States and its allies and has begun mitigating its vulnerabilities and building an offensive toolkit in response. Chinese experts take confidence from Moscow’s resilience in face of more... MORE

Executive Summary: The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin is using memory politics through state media, museums, and official narratives to glorify Cossack military tradition, attempting to merge “service” and “ancestral” conceptions of Cossack history to justify modern expansionism and legitimize the occupation of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin is investing... MORE