Executive Summary: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s autocratic regime faces global condemnation due to its war against Ukraine, suppression of the opposition, and increasing international isolation. These developments expose the regime’s corruption and deepen its global alienation. Russia’s influence is eroding in key regions, including the... MORE

Executive Summary: Since becoming the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin has made developing a north-south trade corridor a centerpiece of his geoeconomic and geopolitical program. This would counter the impact of east-west routes and align the global south against the West. He has now declared this... MORE

Executive Summary: Western sanctions against Russia have hampered northern cargo transportation routes used by most Eurasian states, leading Russia to increase relations with the Taliban government on transport communications to connect to the South Asian market. Extending the International North-South Transport Corridor to Afghanistan and... MORE

Executive Summary: On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, planned to fly from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, after a Russian surface-to-air missile exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. The incident has strained Azerbaijan-Russian relations. Azerbaijani officials criticized Moscow’s denial, lack of... MORE

Executive Summary: Russia’s arms exports dropped by 92 percent from 2021 to 2024 due to redirected resources for Ukraine, sanctions, inflation, and funding issues. The number of countries purchasing Russian arms has dropped dramatically. Major customers such as India have shown caution or shifted to... MORE

Executive Summary: The Ukrainian parliament has voted to recognize Russian actions against the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide—a move Circassians and human rights activists hope will lead other countries to follow. Moscow is working to blunt the impact of Ukraine’s... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has addressed the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump in a series of public messages, reaffirming its entrenched preconditions for a dialogue regarding Ukraine. The Kremlin wants Trump’s team to bid proactively for negotiations over Ukraine on those conditions. Moscow has... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian offensive in Donbas has stalled, creating a deadlock with heavy casualties. The Kremlin remains committed to Ukraine’s capitulation, ignoring the heavy casualties in its stalled Donbas offensive, dismissing ceasefire discussions, and disregarding public support for peace.  Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks... MORE

Executive Summary: Typically “hawkish” Russian media outlets have recently expressed hope for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Skepticism remains, however, with independent analysts citing Russia’s battlefield momentum and potential military escalation in Ukraine. Many Russian soldiers and civilians desire an end to the... MORE

The challenges that face the United States and our allies require greater understanding on the parts of both government and society. Democratic governance means shared responsibilities. Citizens are not subjects. Open source is the only way to share information and develop a common understanding between... MORE