Executive Summary: Delays in weapons deliveries, disproportionate political pressure, and problems with command, control, and communications plagued Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive from the start. Ukrainian forces’ ability to wage a successful 2024 campaign largely rests on Kyiv’s efforts to mobilize more military-age men to reinforce the... MORE

Executive Summary: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ordered Kyiv to devote more attention to Ukrainian “wedges” within the Russian Federation. Zelenskyy’s pronouncement has set off alarm bells in official Moscow, which is already worried about what such attention and contacts may mean to its control... MORE

Executive Summary: Frustrations in Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow are growing over delays in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace negotiations, as key differences remain on unblocking regional transit corridors. Azerbaijan remains committed to opening the Zangezur Corridor, while the Kremlin calls for Russian border guards to oversee administration of... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin has expanded the state-registered Cossack movement within Russia and the illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. The Cossack institutions established in the Luhansk region aim to foster the militarization of the population, especially youth. Moscow has supported initiatives to establish a registered... MORE

Executive Summary: Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has asserted that expanding economic integration The population is split between the Russo-centric and “Westernizing” views on independent Belarus, with Belarusians seemingly outgrowing the former while being unable to embrace the latter fully. A clearer view of the two... MORE

Executive Summary: Mass protests in Bashkortostan featured calls for the independence of the Middle Volga republic and have shattered the image that Russia is united behind Putin. These events have convinced Bashkirs and other non-Russians that their time is coming, and Kyiv believes that the... MORE

Executive Summary: Economic decline and growing security threats limit the effectiveness of Kremlin propagandists’ claims of a “bright future” for a “new Russia.” Moscow has been unable to adequately provide for public security, as Ukraine strikes Russian territory with increased frequency and returning veterans of... MORE

Executive Summary: Putin’s claims that he will never give up the “spoils” won in Ukraine keep Russia locked in the cage of war and render any notions of peace negotiations unrealistic. The degradation of the Russian economy and growing discontent at home casts doubts on... MORE

Executive Summary: The new law granting Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka life-long immunity was necessary to avoid future political retribution that could destabilize Belarus. Western misconceptions of official Minsk’s actions greatly hamper any chances of reversing Belarus’s growing economic dependence on Russia. Positive change in Belarus... MORE

Executive summary: The Kremlin views Serbia as a strategic asset in the Balkans that expands Russia’s geopolitical reach, weakens Western cohesion, and undermines transatlantic institutions. The Serbian government benefits from its alliance with Moscow by having an advocate on the UN Security Council to block... MORE