Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s war strategy relies on the ideas that Russian society is united behind the war and that Western unity is crumbling, neither of which is strong enough to sustain the war effort indefinitely. Putin seeks to maintain public support for the war... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent role in Russia’s military operations. PMCs and other mercenary groups have become key players in... MORE

Executive Summary: Moscow has long exploited its influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia to pressure Moldova not to turn away from Russia and join Western institutions such as the European Union. The Kremlin is once again using these restive Moldovan regions by raising the specter that... MORE

Executive Summary: The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. Russian society has experienced... MORE

 Executive Summary: The Bashkirs are increasingly hearkening back to their heritage of resistance to the central government, leading other non-Russian ethnic minorities to view Moscow, rather than their local leaders, as the problem. Some observers are describing the events in Bashkortostan as a new “Black... MORE

Executive Summary: The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia will sway the country either toward Europe or closer to Russia. Public opinion polls in Georgia show a divide among constituents, who have become drastically disillusioned with the current political parties and feel as though none of... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: The first sign that Putin would be truly ready for peace negotiations would be discretely initiating contact through intelligence personnel, diplomats, and “useful idiots.” The West should have several signals in mind when considering Putin’s true intentions, as Kremlin messaging could be a... MORE

Executive Summary:  Astana plans to pursue a “multi-vector” diplomatic strategy for 2024, engaging more with the CSTO, NATO, and other international organizations and conducting joint military exercises with diverse partners. Kazakhstan’s involvement in CSTO peacekeeping missions highlights its regional security commitments and ongoing reliance on... MORE