Russian forces invaded southern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, from two convergent directions, Crimea and Donetsk, both already occupied since 2014 (see EDM, April 6). Russia’s second invasion resulted, by mid-March 2022, in the capture of Ukraine’s entire Kherson province, a considerable part of the... MORE

How long will Belarus remain a pariah in the eyes of its neighbors? According to Yury Drakakhrust of Radio Liberty, this depends on whether the Belarusian army enters the Russo-Ukrainian war and, above all, on that conflict’s outcome. If Russia emerges weakened from this war,... MORE

Following the March 29 round of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations, held in Istanbul, a cautious optimism crept into the rhetoric of the Russian delegation. However, this was swiftly followed by harshly negative criticism in the Russian media that negotiations are happening at all. That sharp public... MORE

In September 2016, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, announced the creation of an anti-access, area-denial (A2/AD) zone over the Black Sea, centered on occupied Crimea (TASS, September 13, 2016). This A2/AD bubble, which has come to... MORE

On March 15, following a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, Armenia’s top diplomat, Ararat Mirzoyan, told the Turkish Anadolu Agency that Yerevan was ready to resume bilateral relations with Ankara. Mirzoyan welcomed his Turkish counterpart’s... MORE

Moscow-based commentators who remain convinced that Russia saved the current government in Kazakhstan by intervening there in January (see EDM, January 19, 21) are outraged that the Central Asian country is not supporting Russia in the Ukrainian conflict but rather publicly taking positions that challenge... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Invaded Ukraine is negotiating under duress for a two-part deal with the invader Russia: a bilateral treaty on the terms of ending the war and another treaty by which Russia and... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. Russian forces have perpetrated mass-scale, intentional atrocities on civilians in the Kyiv region. Uncovered in the wake of the Russian military’s defeat and withdrawal from that region (March 31–April 4), the... MORE

As March drew to a close, Moscow recalibrated its maximalist war aims in Ukraine, officially designating the “special military operation” as now aimed primarily at “liberating” the entire Donbas region. The demonstrated regrouping of Russia’s forces in the vicinity of Kyiv and Chernihiv is supposed... MORE

Combat operations on all key fronts of the Russo-Ukrainian war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through Ukraine’s pipeline system persists without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity to “weaponize”... MORE