*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny on June 23 and 24, which culminated in the Wagner Group’s de-facto capture of the city of Rostov-on-Don, highlighted the complexity of the ongoing para-militarization of Russian society and the state’s overarching reliance on irregular... MORE

Western naval powers have been shut out of the Black Sea until further notice. This is an extraordinary situation, exceedingly rare in modern history. No warship from a non-riparian country has entered the Black Sea since December 2021. And no naval exercise with Western participation has... MORE

On July 9, Turkey freed the commanders of the well-known Ukrainian Azov regiment after months of hosting them as a part of a deal with Russia (Ukrinform, July 31). The fighters surrendered to Russian forces after weeks of brutal siege and resistance at the Azovstal... MORE

A new, seventh package of European sanctions is about to be imposed on Belarus. And by the end of the week, its full details will be published. What is known at this point is that the package will include restrictions on the supply of military... MORE

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea on July 25 to celebrate the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) self-proclaimed “victory” in the 1950–1953 Korean War has generated much speculation in the expert community (Lenta.ru, July 25). The DPRK has always been in... MORE

*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12 upgraded the old NATO-Ukraine Commission to a NATO-Ukraine Council, which allows Ukraine to call for consultations during crisis situations (see EDM, July 13, 17, 19).... MORE

Concerted diplomatic efforts were invested during preparations for the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, formally held on July 27 and 28, and President Vladimir Putin was grandstanding, networking and entertaining his guests non-stop from Wednesday afternoon to Saturday evening. His main intention was to demonstrate... MORE

On July 25, the Russian State Duma finally passed two laws that increase the age range for draft-eligible Russian men from 18–26 years old to 18–29 years old and that significantly increase the fines for avoiding recruitment and other violations during conscription and mobilization campaigns.... MORE

*Read Part One. Russia has turned much of the Black Sea into another theater of protracted conflict, adding a sizeable maritime dimension to the land dimension. This conflict at sea reproduces some key features of the preexisting, Russian-initiated protracted conflicts on land around the Black... MORE

On July 17, Russia unilaterally suspended the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (“grain deal”), the year-old arrangement that has allowed Ukraine to export grain—albeit under Russian-imposed conditions—from the three ports in and near Odesa. The Kremlin and its navy had (until now) only... MORE