*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. The current absence of Western naval powers in the Black Sea marks a sharp break with the history of their steady presence. This new situation, now in its 20th month, stems from two separate but harmonized decisions: that of... MORE

Prisoners and “veterans of the special military operation (SVO)” occupy an increasingly significant place in various spheres of Russian society, even if this does not especially suit the Kremlin. Pro-Kremlin experts complain of manpower shortages, noting that the economy has reached a new 27-year low... MORE

When Moscow announced plans in 2000 for the creation of a north-south trade corridor, its initial goal was to bypass the Suez Canal; however, recently, this passage has been used primarily to evade Western sanctions (Realtribune.ru, November 30, 2022). The Russian authorities have focused on... MORE

At the time of writing, Ukrainian forces had managed to reach the so-called “Surovikin Line” in a number of places. Ukrainian units finally managed to break through the Russian echeloned defensive lines in the area of Priyutnoye-Staromayorskoye-Novodonetske and now threaten to enter the operational zone... MORE

*Read Part One. Just as it eschewed declaring war on Ukraine—proclaiming, instead, a “special military operation”—Russia never officially announced a naval blockade of Ukraine. A declared blockade accompanying a declared state of war would have enabled Russia to, however abusively, stop and search any commercial... MORE

According to recent leaks, Russian national defense spending surpassed 5.59 trillion rubles (more than $72.2 billion) for the first six months of 2023. The overall annual budget for the year was originally planned for 5.1 trillion rubles, or $74.7 billion according to the estimated exchange... MORE

The low-profile and high-impact meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5 and 6 was never intended to produce a road map for ending the war in Ukraine; neither was it a summit, since the invitations sent to some 40 countries specified the level of... MORE

Transnistria has almost always attracted more attention as a tool for Moscow in limiting Moldova’s freedom of action than Gagauzia, a Turkic but Orthodox Christian autonomy in the country’s southeast that the Russian authorities have also used to influence Chisinau’s decision-making (see EDM, June 23,... MORE

*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny on June 23 and 24, which culminated in the Wagner Group’s de-facto capture of the city of Rostov-on-Don, highlighted the complexity of the ongoing para-militarization of Russian society and the state’s overarching reliance on irregular... MORE

Western naval powers have been shut out of the Black Sea until further notice. This is an extraordinary situation, exceedingly rare in modern history. No warship from a non-riparian country has entered the Black Sea since December 2021. And no naval exercise with Western participation has... MORE