In the 12th month of Russia’s war against Ukraine, analysts close to the Kremlin are increasingly sounding the alarm that the Russian people should prepare for a long-term conflict. At the same time, in the past, such statements were always accompanied by propaganda narratives about... MORE

The prolonged political instability in Bulgaria will continue to impact critical energy security decisions and maintain the country’s status as Russia’s best client in Europe. Bulgaria, currently the third-largest buyer of Russian oil in the world, is heading for another round of general elections on... MORE

Since February 2022, the Kremlin has been trying to clearly present the purpose and thinking behind its all-out aggression against Ukraine. The Russian authorities’ narratives began with President Vladimir Putin’s declarations of “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine together with punishment for Kyiv’s “decommunization.” However, this... MORE

The Turkish government insists that Sweden significantly change its permissive approach to the Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK, or Kurdish Workers’ Party) and other anti-Turkey groups as a condition for Ankara’s approval of Stockholm’s application for NATO membership. Western commentators have attributed the position of the... MORE

*Read Part One here. The recently established military relationship between South Korea and Poland is a multidimensional phenomenon, reaching beyond security in its traditional meaning. In fact, large-scale arms contracts are almost always politicized and followed or accompanied by intensified economic ties. Certainly, in the... MORE

Numerous Russian media outlets (e.g., RBC, January 22) echoed the content of a recent US media report, according to which rare earth metals necessary for the production of microchips, electronics and armor-piercing ammunition are still being delivered to the European Union from China by rail.... MORE

*Read Part One here. *Read Part Two here. *Read Part Three here. Russia, immersed in its war against Ukraine, does not currently have Moldova in its crosshairs, at least as long as Ukraine holds out. Russia has adopted a reactive posture regarding Moldova. The Kremlin seems... MORE

*Read Part One here. *Read Part Two here. The European Union has recently granted Moldova the status of candidate country for EU membership (Consilium.europa.eu, June 24, 2022). By way of consequence, the security arrangements of an EU candidate country cannot be left to an organization... MORE

Western analysts have recently devoted much attention to the religious dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the true measure of influence that Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church wields over President Vladimir Putin (see EDM, January 25). Moscow’s proposed unilateral ceasefire on January 6,... MORE

*Read Part One here. The “5+2” forum on Transnistria was designed in 2005 based on the old model of the European Concert, updated as Euro-Atlantic: to settle a local conflict through negotiations among great powers. Similarly, the negotiating formats on the conflicts in Karabakh (1994–2020),... MORE