Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. It is based on three premises: economic performance will keep the war machine going; Western support for Ukraine will erode and contract; and... MORE

Moscow has long declared that China’s role in the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a central part of their strategic cooperation (see EDM, July 23, 2020; March 28). Despite this, the Kremlin cannot be entirely comfortable with the recent extent of Beijing’s... MORE

On September 15, the European Commission decided not to extend the ban on imports of certain grain exports from Ukraine. The ban was imposed after five European Union member states—Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia—effectively pressured Brussels to impose it, fearing destabilization of their domestic... MORE

Since Russia began its “special military operation” (SVO) against Ukraine in February 2022, its stalled offensive has been accompanied by increasingly punitive Western sanctions. This trend has increased the value of those partners still willing to trade with Moscow. China tops that list, with India... MORE

On September 6, the United Wa State Party, the political arm of one of the most powerful ethnic resistance armies in Myanmar, handed over 1,207 Chinese online scammers for extradition back to China (Eleven Media Group, September 9; Global Times, September 9). This was the... MORE

Russians have become increasingly accustomed to, if not comfortable with, the expansion of Chinese influence in the Russian Far East, along the Northern Sea Route, and in some of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the South Caucasus (see EDM, March 9, May... MORE

On September 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered comments on the state of Russian defense production at a meeting of Russia’s Military-Industrial Commission in Izhevsk. Putin declared that the production of battle tanks and armored vehicles had doubled from January to August 2023, as compared... MORE

On September 6, China’s ambassador to Georgia, Zhou Qian, made an important declaration regarding Beijing’s interest in the development of the deep-water Port of Anaklia in Georgia. Zhou made clear that China considers the port a “critical component” of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)... MORE

In a recent interview on September 13, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia can no longer rely on Moscow as a guarantor of its security (Asbarez.com, September 13). This comes against the backdrop of renewed tensions in the South Caucasus, as recent events... MORE

Iran has traditionally faced an uphill battle in its struggle with Turkey for influence in Central Asia. But for most of the past three decades, Tehran has successfully exploited two factors in this fight. On the one hand, the Islamic Republic has relied on its... MORE