Both certain Belarusians and some Russian analysts are convinced that Vladimir Putin’s next target will be Belarus. They have their reasons, and these reasons are compelling: Taking Belarus would give Putin a victory he has not been able to achieve in Ukraine; a move of... MORE

Local elections are looming in the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (“DPR, LPR”) in October. If validated internationally, such elections could lead to internal Ukrainian constitutional negotiations that would preserve the Russia-Ukraine conflict—unsolved, but in a different form. It would conclusively vindicate Russia’s thesis about... MORE

Russia’s Armed Forces, feeling the strain of unofficial involvement in Ukraine and maintaining higher readiness throughout the crisis, have recently experienced a number of high-profile air force crashes and setbacks for military modernization. The annual VDV Day saw an opportunity to extol the 85th anniversary... MORE

The European Union–backed Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) project continues to gain traction against the Moscow-led Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline initiative. The game-changer in the Euro-Russian “battle” for pipelines and energy hubs could be the participation of the major oil and gas producers Iran and... MORE

Western governments regularly disagree with the Kremlin over the meaning of democracy and free elections. Nevertheless, Western diplomacy currently supports Moscow’s goal for local elections to be staged in the Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine’s east. If validated as apparently intended by the Organization for Security... MORE

Russia’s policy toward the Islamic State (IS) group in the Middle East is controversial. On the one hand, involvement in IS activities officially became a crime in Russia in February 2015 (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, February 27). On the other hand, Russia does not seem to have... MORE

The Russian nyet in the United Nations Security Council, which blocked the resolution on setting up an international tribunal on the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine, was entirely predictable (see EDM, July 30). President Vladimir Putin had described the proposed legal... MORE

Dagestan has not seen potentially destabilizing arrests of top officials since the arrest of the mayor of Makhachkala on June 1, 2013 (RIA Novosti, June 1, 2013). That is why the news about a police search of the home of one of the most influential... MORE

Despite the best efforts of both Moscow and Tokyo to sustain the momentum toward a full normalization of their relations and a genuine rapprochement (see EDM, February 24, 2014; June 10, 2014), once again Russia has tried to intimidate Japan. In June 2015, Russian Defense... MORE

To read Part One, please click here. At this point, Moscow seems content to watch Western diplomats urging Kyiv to legitimize the Donetsk-Luhansk authorities through local elections, and (as a consequence of this) enshrining an official status for that territory in Ukraine’s constitution (see EDM,... MORE