Stephen Blank
Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Previously, he worked as a professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, PA. The views expressed here do not represent those of the U.S. Army, Defense Department or the U.S. Government.
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Articles by Stephen Blank
Russia Kowtows to China
Executive Summary: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made an official visit to China earlier this month to meet with Chinese President Xi Jin Ping and Foreign Ministry, laying the foundation
Moscow Expands Military Influence in Africa
Executive Summary: Russia’s advances in Africa are moving to a new political-strategic level by establishing further military and economic ties across the continent. Moscow has long worked to gain influence
Lavrov’s Visit to Pyongyang Buries Russian Pivot to Asia
If Russia’s pivot to Asia was not yet dead, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit to Pyongyang on October 18 and 19 may have sealed its fate (TASS, October 18).
US Summit Reflects Decline in Russia’s Position in Central Asia
Numerous accounts of Russia’s position and influence in Central Asia have commented on Moscow’s declining standing there. Those results are visible in the clear unhappiness of Central Asian governments with
Trade and Geopolitics in and Around Kazakhstan
On June 20, after meeting with Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced Germany’s recent endorsement of Kazakhstan’s efforts to create alternative trade routes and transport
Prigozhin Mutiny Further Distances Central Asia From Russia
Even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was clear that the Central Asian states were beginning to distance themselves from Russia’s proprietorial attitude toward the region. And the war
China Makes Its Move in Central Asia
At the recent China–Central Asia summit on May 18 and 19, Beijing presented a comprehensive plan for expanding cooperation with the Central Asian states that would usurp Russia’s position in
New Trends May Change the SCO
Many of the reverberations from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continue to be felt across Central Asia. One such under-examined, but crucial vibration is that of the future course of the
Russia’s Ongoing Impact in Latin America
Russia’s war against Ukraine has diverted observers’ attention away from its policies in Latin America. While the blockade of the Black Sea and ensuing weaponization of both Russian and Ukrainian
Wagner in Serbia: A Fire Bell in the Night
One Russian mercenary paramilitary force, the Wagner private military company (PMC), has long earned itself the grisly reputation as a vicious, brutal predatory armed force. It carries out operations in
Sergei Lavrov: The African Explorer
As part of efforts to find friends overseas as the Kremlin’s all-out aggression against Ukraine drags on, Moscow’s previously growing efforts to ensconce its influence in Africa have only intensified.
Russia, China and South Africa to Conduct Joint Naval Exercises
From February 17 to 27, the navies of Russia, China and South Africa will conduct joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Durban, the largest port
Russia’s New Foreign Policy Orientation
In the wake of growing isolation due to its aggression against Ukraine, Russia’s foreign policy leadership and brain trust have elaborated a new ideology and self-identification that is meant to
The Emerging Russo-Iranian Entente
The fact that Iran has been transferring drones to Russia and is even helping manufacture them within Russia is well known by now (Ibtimes.com, November 21). But this bilateral cooperation
Russia’s Position in Central Asia Continues to Slip
A major casualty of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has been its weakening position and leverage in Central Asia. In truth, this war has plainly demonstrated Moscow’s risky imperial impulses
What Does Russia’s New Maritime Doctrine Signify in a Strategic Sense?
On July 31, Russia issued its new maritime doctrine, though the reasoning behind its timing remains unclear (Kremlin.ru, July 31). No compelling maritime or bureaucratic pressures seemed to trigger this
Russia’s Newest Nuclear Threats
From the outset of Moscow’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, nuclear threats and blackmail have been integral to Russia’s overall strategy. President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of the “special military
The Kremlin’s Bluff in Afghanistan
A close examination of the Russian government’s public positions on the impending Taliban takeover of Afghanistan provides a revealing picture of Moscow’s approach to conflicts abroad and of its posture
Collateral Damage: Azerbaijan and Central Asia Are Caught in Russia’s Oil War
As the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread across the Eurasian landmass and beyond, the energy-producing states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia were dealt
Behind Moscow’s Arms Control Offensive
Russia has a long track record of importuning the United States and its allies regarding arms control treaties and negotiations. But the sentiment Moscow presents to the West is far
Facing Few Obstacles and Scant Pushback, Russia Keeps Advancing in Africa
According to numerous analyses published by think tanks and journals in the United States and Europe, Russia lost its African adventure before it even started. Purportedly, Russia lacks the resources
New Missions and New Capabilities for Russia’s Navy
One of the hallmarks of Vladimir Putin’s leadership has been the steady rise in capabilities and mission sets for the Russian navy—the Military-Maritime Fleet (Voyenno-Morskoy Flot—VMF). Already in February 2014,
Latin America Emerges as a Russian Theater of Operations
It has only recently become clear to analysts in the United States that Russia is playing a big role in Latin America to destabilize Washington’s alliance system and threaten US
The New Potemkin Village: Russia in the Far East
Moscow’s vaunted “pivot to the East” did not begin when Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency in 2012. Instead, it dates back to late 2006, when he ordered the development
After the INF: Russia’s Propaganda and Real Threats
No sooner did the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty expire on August 2, Moscow launched a propaganda offensive to shift attention away from the threats its missile programs pose
Joint Bomber Patrol Over the Pacific: The Russo-Chinese Military Alliance in Action
On July 24, 2019, Russian and Chinese military planes flying together invaded Japanese and South Korean airspace only to encounter Korean fighters that shot at the Russian aircraft. The Russian
Jamestown Contributor Stephen Blank Appears as Guest on Power Vertical Podcast
On July 26, regular Jamestown contributor Dr. Stephen Blank appeared as a guest on the Power Vertical Podcast to discuss the prospects of a rising Chinese-Russian alliance. To read his
Sino-Tajik Exercises: The Latest Chinese Encroachment Into Russia’s ‘Sphere of Influence’
At the end of July, Tajikistan and China will hold joint military exercises in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. These ostensibly anti-terrorist exercises will feature Tajikistani air, ground and air-defense forces.
Russia’s Military Diplomacy in Africa: What Does It Mean?
Despite modern Russia’s constrained resources, its foreign policy has long operated on a global scale. And one key area of this worldwide remit is increasingly Africa, where arms sales and
Putin and Kim’s Vladivostok Summit: What Did We Learn?
Although North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s travels inevitably attract a lot of media attention due to his country’s inherent secrecy and opacity, expectations were not high for the summit with
Japan Represents Another Russian Failure in Asia
Although analysts in Russia, no doubt with official prompting, generally talk up the success of their country’s so-called pivot to Asia, in fact that policy has little to show for
Russia Reacts to US Afghanistan Policy
Russia has opposed the United States’ policy in Afghanistan for years. Indeed, Moscow’s own support for the Taliban, in the form of intelligence sharing and arms transfers, goes back to
Russia’s Middle Eastern Position in 2025
Summary Through 2025, Russia will continue to enjoy the prominence it now possesses in the Middle East and can be expected to succeed in this quest because it has strategically
Russia in the Middle East: Introduction
Today, Moscow is engaged across the entire Middle East in multiple and apparently mutually reinforcing ways. Apart from its military intervention in Syria, it now holds the balance between Israel
Russia’s Peace Conference on Afghanistan: What Does It Mean?
Last week (November 9), Russia finally convened its long-heralded peace conference on Afghanistan. Attending the conference were members of the Taliban as well as the governments of Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Russia’s Connection to Saudi Arabia Intensifies
Even without the enormous scandal of the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi hit men allegedly operating under state auspices, late October 2018 has been especially eventful for
Russia’s Endless Quest for Recognition in Korea
Ever since the Six-Party Talks to denuclearize North Korea began in 2003, Russia has relentlessly searched for a way to prove its importance to all the other players, which also
Putin’s Trip to Azerbaijan: Manipulating the Caucasus Triangle
While crises in the Middle East, Ukraine and East Asia occupy much of the world’s headlines, interesting and significant dynamics have been driving events in the Caucasus in recent months.
Russia, Iran and the Middle East: What Comes Next?
In Helsinki, Finland, where he was attending a summit with United States President Donald Trump, on July 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked that restoring peace and harmony to Syria
Rosneft in Kurdistan: A Neglected but Critical Aspect of Russian Regional Strategy
Rosneft and Gazprom function primarily as arms of the Russian state (Jamestown.org, March 8). Although they are in business to make money for themselves, these state-owned firms are also expected
Is There Still a Role For Russia in the Korean ‘Peace Process?’
Since the announcement of looming inter-Korean and United States–North Korean summits, regional powers China, Japan and Russia have all striven mightily not to be excluded or marginalized from those processes.
Toward a More Perfect Alliance: Russo-Chinese Ministerials in Moscow
Though most Western scholars do not believe that a real Russo-Chinese alliance actually exists, the arguments of Russian experts and the results of the recent bilateral ministerial meetings of the
Sergei Lavrov’s Africa Trip: Regional Promises and Global Ambitions
For Russian policymakers who took up their positions in the bureaucracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Africa may have been the least important continent on their minds. Even
Putin’s Arctic Dream Evolving Into Nightmare?
Russia conceived of the Arctic as a military bastion long before Vladimir Putin rose to power. Yet, since coming to the Kremlin, Putin has explicitly tried to turn the Russian
Our Man in Belgrade: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov Visits the Balkans
Montenegro’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) last year, the European Union’s announcement that it will resume enlargement before 2025 to include at least one Balkan state, Serbia’s
Moscow Continues to Pay Close Attention to Latin America
Russia’s actions in Latin America—including a recent series of economic agreements signed with Argentina (Izvestia, January 18)—are often overlooked given that Europe, Asia, the Middle East and, of course, the
Russia Continues Its Arctic Buildup as Kremlin Perceives a Non-Existent Threat
A great deal of recent commentary has alerted Western audiences to the threat posed by Russian spy ships and submarines in the North Atlantic. These vessels are conducting reconnaissance of
Imperial Strategies: Russia’s Exploitation of Ethnic Issues and Policy in the Middle East
Summary Russia has been an empire throughout its history. Accordingly, the mechanisms and practices of imperial management, particularly Russia’s ability to coopt potential elites from minorities with whom it is
Regular Jamestown Russia Analyst Stephen Blank Interviewed by Washington Post
On December 12, the Washington Post published an article on Russia's Middle East strategies, which features commentary and analysis from Dr. Stephen Blank, a regular contributor to Jamestown's Eurasia Daily
From Sochi to the Sahel: Russia’s Expanding Footprint
Like New York City, Russian diplomacy seemingly never sleeps. Last week, President Vladimir Putin conducted a series of mini summits in Sochi on consolidating a postwar order in Syria and
Kremlin Ties Rosneft Closer to China
Russian state-owned oil giant Rosneft continues to think big and strike major deals on the global stage. It recently announced a program to sell bonds worth 1.3 trillion rubles ($22.53
Arms and the King in Saudi-Russian Relations
Vladimir Putin described Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud’s visit to Moscow as “momentous” (see EDM, October 10; RIA Novosti, October 5); and it certainly was. In similar fashion,
The Foundations of Russian Policy in the Middle East
Summary There is little doubt that Russia is winning in the Middle East at the expense of the United States. This strategic development has a lengthy history: As foreign minister
Moscow Still Investing in Venezuela
Despite the multiplicity of major and urgent international crises around the globe, Russia still finds time to invest its political resources in Venezuela’s long-running collapse. Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin
The Bloom Comes off the Arctic Rose
For about a decade, the Arctic has been a showpiece of Russian policy. And with the Vladimir Putin regime’s displayed proclivity for engaging in vast “mega-projects” like the Sochi Olympics,
Space and the Russian Military: New Trends
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on May 22, in Sochi, where he called for broadening the use of space technologies to improve the domestic economy and national defense,
Russia’s Reservations About China’s Silk Road
The One Belt, One Road summit, held in Beijing on May 14–15, was supposed to be a celebration of China’s major Eurasian developmental initiative (Xinhua, May 16). But at least
A Caravan to Nowhere? Russo-Japanese Relations
The present crisis over North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs not only impels a much more careful look at the Korean peninsula but also encourages closer scrutiny of the complex
Another Russian Failure: Moscow and the Korean Question
North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs represent a threat to all of Asia if not beyond. Yet, despite this being an issue with grave implications for Russia’s vital interests, once
Russian Anxiety About Central Asia Becomes Palpable
Moscow’s anxieties about Central Asia and its position there are becoming increasingly visible. And renewed charges of Russian imperial ambitions in the region and elsewhere clearly sting the Kremlin. Thus,
Russian Advances in the Gulf
All too often, Russian policy in the Middle East is perceived as tied mainly or exclusively to Syria and its ongoing civil war. But in fact, Moscow has long sought
Russia, Iran and the US: An Obtuse Triangle
After Iran tested another missile, on January 29, in violation of several United Nations resolutions, the White House declared that Tehran was “on notice” and imposed new sanctions on the
Moscow’s Double Game in Afghanistan
With multiple global crises competing for urgent public attention, it is not surprising that Western media and governments have failed to keep pace with Russia’s double game in Afghanistan. But
Is Belarus at Risk From an Impatient Russia?
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Belarus’s strategic position has become riskier and more acutely endangered, a fact the government in Minsk undoubtedly understands quite well. At the
The Rocky Road to Russo-Japanese Peace
On December 15–16, Vladimir Putin will travel to Japan for a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This summit will represent the culminating effort to date of a four-year
Russia Looks to the Weapons of the Future
Ever since Soviet Marshal Nikolai Ogarkov first wrote about the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) 40 years ago, Moscow has looked to build weapons based upon what he called “new
Fueling Russia’s Arctic Obsession
A recent article in the Financial Times (October 23) ran with the headline “Russia’s Arctic Obsession.” And this has undoubtedly become an entirely justified characterization of Moscow’s approach to its
Russian Meddling in the Balkans Threatens to Reverse Region’s European Integration
While international attention focuses on the United States presidential election, the war in Syria or Brexit, Moscow continues to stir the pot in the Balkans. Illustratively, as Montenegrins prepared to
Could Africa Become a New Leading Market For Russian Arms Sales?
Africa has never been a particularly high foreign policy priority for the Russian Federation. This is mainly due to a lack of resources and capacity in Moscow; for if those
Russian Writers on the Decline of Russia in the Far East and the Rise of China
Russia’s rapprochement with China began in the 1980s and 1990s; while its “pivot to Asia” began in 2008. Thus Russia has never completely absented itself from Asia even though for
Can Russia Sustain Its Military Capability?
Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine and subsequently accelerating militarization has forced us to re-examine Russian defense policy as a central focus of foreign attention. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s intervention
A Crystallizing Russo-Chinese Alliance
Whenever a Russian president travels to Asiatic Russia or the Asia-Pacific region, he traditionally enunciates important precepts of Russian foreign policy in Asia. This was true of both Dmitry Medvedev
Missile Defense in Korea Further Roils US-Russian Relations
Europe is not the only theater of acute discord between Russia and the United States; nor is the alleged militarization of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) the only issue
Need for Closer Ties With Beijing Clouds Moscow’s View of the SCO
Russian views of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) were prominently on display at the grouping’s most recent summit, in Tashkent, which took place on June 23–24. Specifically, President Vladimir Putin
Putin-Netanyahu Meeting Strengthens Russia-Israel Ties
Moscow’s intervention in Syria’s civil war has propelled Russia into the center of Middle Eastern politics and substantially enhanced its ties with virtually every Middle Eastern state. Israel is no
Moscow’s Appointment in Doha Goes Awry
Russian talks with Gulf states, in Doha, Qatar, aimed at freezing oil production and thereby raising prices, broke down on April 17 (RT, April 17). This failure to reach an
Moscow Plays the Arctic Card in Its Asian Policy
Since 2007, two of Moscow’s priority foreign policy initiatives have been its pivot to Asia and efforts to secure recognition of its Arctic claims while opening the Russian High North
New Momentum in the Russia-China Partnership
Many observers of the Russo-Chinese relationship continue to believe that it is merely a marriage or axis of convenience, which will only last as long as it does not damage
A Comeback for South Stream?
When Moscow abruptly terminated the South Stream natural gas pipeline project in December 2014 (see EDM, December 17, 2014), that decision left all of Russia’s potential partners in the Balkans
Missile Defense in East Asia and New Trends in the Russo-Chinese Partnership
The Russo-Chinese partnership, if not alliance, has frequently encountered challenges and obstacles in the past. Two years ago, Russian Defense Minister Segei Shoigu and his deputy, Anatoly Antonov, openly called
Russia’s Newest Balkan Games
Experts have long known that the Balkans are a political battleground between Russia and the West. And this chronic non-military conflict has only intensified with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and
The Meaning of Russia’s Naval Deployments in the Mediterranean
Russian ships equipped with the advanced sea-launched Kalibr cruise missile will now be perpetually present in the Mediterranean Sea as part of Moscow’s naval operations connected to the mission in
Russia and North Korea’s Nuclear and Missile Tests
Most Western reporting on the aftermath of North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests in January–February 2016 has focused on China. However, Russia, too, has important interests at stake in Korea
Russia Losing Ground Across Central Asia
Increasingly, it seems that wherever one looks in Central Asia, Russia is losing ground. This retreat is not confined to economics, though it is certainly present in this sphere. Notably,
The Russo-Japanese Relationship in China’s Shadow
The New Year brought new challenges and opportunities to Russian policy in East Asia. On January 3, 2016, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe signaled Japan’s continuing interest in a summit
Russia Decides Who the Terrorists Are
At the end of 2015, an unnamed Kremlin official announced that Moscow was now sharing intelligence about the Islamic State with the Afghan Taliban, even though the Taliban remains on
Russia and the TAPI Pipeline
On December 13, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India broke ground on the constructions of a new natural gas pipeline that will carry Turkmenistani gas eastward toward the other three partner
Another Opportunity Lost: Russia and Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia is not generally seen as an area of Russia’s core vital interests. But given the priority of Moscow’s Asian pivot, it is an important area both in terms
Whither Russo-Japanese Relations?
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be visiting Japan this year or anytime soon (see EDM, October 9) and currently no agenda even exists for any such visit, Tokyo
Putin and Lavrov Again Play the Ethnic Compatriot Card
Since the 1990s, Moscow has repeatedly looked beyond Russia’s borders and pledged to come to the assistance of its allegedly victimized fellow Russian citizens, or ethnic Great Russians, or Russian
Russia’s New Arctic Base Continue the Militarization of the High North
On October 22, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of a new Russian military base in the Arctic. This base will be located either on the Novosibirsk Islands or
Cuba: Russia’s Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier
Despite all of the other major foreign policy issues on its agenda, Russia has not forgotten Cuba. Indeed, it appears that Moscow’s strategic interest in this Caribbean island country has
Russia’s Fourth Front: Central Asia
Russian leaders have long held a deeply pessimistic view about Afghanistan’s future prospects as well as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) strategy there (Mil.ru, December 10, 2014). Indeed, late
Moscow and Tokyo Come No Closer to Burying the Hatchet
Despite Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s hopeful meeting, on October 4, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, as well as Abe’s talks with President Vladimir Putin, at the United
North Pole Becomes an Object of Multipolar Rivalry
The Arctic is seemingly becoming an object of multipolar contention. President Barack Obama’s recent visit to the Arctic and call for construction of a new icebreaker and Arctic-capable commercial vessels
Moscow Trying Every Middle Eastern Door
Throughout the year, the Middle East has remained engulfed in conflict as well as intense international diplomatic negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. And just as the United States
Russia’s New Maritime Doctrine
On July 26, Russia released its new maritime doctrine to 2020 (Kremlin.ru, July 26). It is important not to confuse this document with a new “naval doctrine,” although this doctrine
Once Again Moscow Tries to Intimidate Tokyo
Despite the best efforts of both Moscow and Tokyo to sustain the momentum toward a full normalization of their relations and a genuine rapprochement (see EDM, February 24, 2014; June
Why Moscow Sells Arms for Rubber, Fruit and Vegetables
Sometimes a story appears that seemingly makes no sense and cries out for an explanation. The following story is one of those cases: On July 15, RIA Novosti reported that
Jamestown Analyst Stephen Blank Quoted by Intersection
On July 9, European news portal The Intersection Project interviewed Jamestown Russia expert Stephen Blank regarding Moscow's relationship with Beijing.
BRICS for Greece
It appeared too great a temptation to pass up for the Kremlin when Greece’s impending default and exit from the Eurozone or even the European Union (the so-called Grexit) occurred
Russia’s New Energy Accords: Are They for Real?
Given the centrality of energy to the Russian economy and the withering impact of continuing low energy prices and sanctions, Russia has ample reason to promote energy deals with anyone
Myth and Reality in Russia’s Asian Policy
According to Russian analysts and leaders like Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Russia has turned to Asia because of Western sanctions and is making steady progress there in achieving its objectives
Russia’s Unending Balkan Intrigues
Historically, Russia has treated the Balkans as an area solidly within its sphere of vital interests, and that is still the case today. While individual Balkan countries are not especially
Russo-Chinese Exercises in the Mediterranean
Sino-Russian joint naval maneuvers are not a new phenomenon; they have occurred at least twice in the Far East. But the most recent maneuvers that took place in the Mediterranean,
Kim Jong-un: The Man Who Got Away
Even as South Korean media were speculating about Kim Jong-un’s projected visit to Moscow to attend the VE-Day celebration on May 9, 2015, he announced abruptly that he would not,
Russia’s Game in Southeast Asia
The Ukraine crisis has brought Russia and China much closer together (see EDM, April 3). But Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s trip to Southeast Asia—Thailand and then Vietnam—in early April
Russia and Yemen’s Agony
Russia’s position on the fighting in Yemen needs to be understood in terms of its overall approach to the Middle East. And Moscow’s approach to the region has become more
His Master’s Voice: Lavrov Tours Latin America
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent tour of Latin America aimed to build on Moscow’s previous successes among pro-Russian regimes there—Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela—as well as to establish stronger ties with
Why Is Russia Deploying Nuclear Weapons to Crimea?
Recently, there has been an uptick in Russian efforts to defend the placement of nuclear-capable weapons, if not actual nuclear weapons, on Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed one
Russia’s Aircraft Carrier of Tomorrow
According to Admiral Viktor Chirkov, the commander in chief of the Russian Navy, Moscow is currently building an aircraft carrier of tomorrow. This future-oriented carrier will possess broad capabilities connected
Russia’s Quest for Balkan Influence and Bases
Russia has long harbored an expansionist drive to the Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean. And the prelude or precondition for Moscow to be able to make real progress toward securing
Russia Stirs the Pot in the Middle East
While attention in the Middle East has focused mainly on the Islamic State or on Israel’s relationship with the United States, Russia has been busy trying to advance its own
Russia’s Third Front: Mounting Anxiety Over Afghanistan
With most of the military forces of the United States and the North Atlantic Organization (NATO) having departed Afghanistan, Russia has grown increasingly anxious about a possible deterioration of the
Stephen Blank Quoted by CBC
Stephen Blank, a Eurasian affairs analyst for Jamestown, discussed the possibility of the United States arming Ukraine in that country's fight against Russia with CBC.
Russia Gives EU, Turkey and Azerbaijan an Ultimatum on ‘Turk Stream’
On January 14, 2015, Aleksei Miller, the CEO of Russia’s state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom, sent a letter of warning to European Commission Vice President for the Energy Union Maros
Russia’s Military Doctrine Reflects Putin’s Paranoia and Siege Mentality
Moscow published its new Military Doctrine on December 26, 2014 (Kremlin.ru, December 26, 2014). And without going into the details (see accompanying article), clearly this document reflects the mentality of
Putin’s Passage to India: Where Did It Lead?
Russian President Vladimir Putin termed his recent trip to India “productive” and “positive.” Indeed, twenty agreements were signed with India, pertaining mainly to economic issues, energy supplies and arms sales
Will Russia Cry for Argentina, or Will Argentina Cry for Russia?
In recent years, Russia has been clearly trying to expand its foreign policy reach in Latin America (see EDM, May 2, July 22). This was especially evident during President Vladimir
The Russian Arctic: Between Economic Development and Accelerating Militarization
Lately, hardly a day passes without another announcement of a new Russian military deployment in the Arctic. Yet, the Arctic’s fundamental strategic importance to Russia is economic: namely, the potential
What Do Russian Probes in the Baltic Portend?
Earlier this month (October 2014), Scandinavian, and especially Swedish, media have focused on Sweden’s apparently abortive efforts to locate what was allegedly a disabled Russian reconnaissance submarine off its shores
Russia’s Push to the South—A Net Assessment of the Geopolitical Developments in the Black Sea Region Since the Start of 2014
The strategic implications of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine far transcend Ukraine, Russia, Poland and the Baltic States. They also prominently include the entire Black Sea littoral,
Russo-Japanese Ties Remain a Casualty of War With Ukraine
Russian ties with Japan have clearly suffered serious damage due to Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine. Apparently, there will not be a visit by Russian President Putin to Japan anytime soon,
Moscow Begins Building a New Black Sea Fleet
After annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, Russia is now rebuilding its Black Sea Fleet (BSF) to ensure its regional dominance, to exclude all rivals, and to lay the foundation for further
What Effect Will Asian Sanctions Have Upon Russia?
In the wake of the newest sanctions on Russia by the European Union and the United States, Washington is seeking to persuade its Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, to
Vladimir Putin’s Latin American Tour
During July 11–16, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled around Latin America. Apart from attending the BRICS (loose political-economic grouping of rising developing countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa)
Arms Sales to Pakistan Kindle Indian Wrath
Russia’s announcement, earlier this month, that it was negotiating the sale of helicopters to Pakistan (see EDM, June 24) may have backfired on Moscow, as it clearly underestimated the anger that
Moscow’s Ministers Descend on Baku
During June 2014, Russian ministers and high-level officials descended on Baku to pursue Russia’s lengthening agenda with Azerbaijan. At the beginning of the month, Economic Minister Alexei Ulyukaev came to
The Crisis in Ukraine Claims Another Victim: Russo-Japanese Rapprochement
The Ukrainian crisis has apparently claimed another victim, namely Russo-Japanese rapprochement. This rapprochement, which began after Shinzo Abe’s rise to power in Tokyo, offered clear signs of a new attempt
Is Egypt Russia’s Next Major Middle Eastern Arms Customer?
Today, Russia is being associated almost exclusively with the crisis it has generated in Ukraine. But that is a myopic and excessively complacent view. Indeed, Russia is carrying on a
Russia’s Game in North Korea
During his visit to Seoul in late 2013, Vladimir Putin almost explicitly warned the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK—North Korea) that, if it did not respond to Moscow’s proposal
Nicaragua: Moscow’s ‘Second Front’
If focused exclusively on Russian actions in Ukraine or other areas contiguous to Russia, one loses sight of major elements of Moscow’s foreign policy. The Russian Federation considers itself to
Further Rapprochement in Russo-Chinese Relations? Opportunities Versus Roadblocks
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit China for a summit in May. In advance of that meeting, Russian sources are again claiming that an agreement on a gas
The Arctic Template of Russian National Security Policy
Ukraine shows that Russia’s threat assessments are cynical, mendacious, inclined toward worst-case scenarios, self-aggrandizing and self-reinforcing. They betray not just an incipient trend toward paranoia, but also hysteria about foreign
Moscow Expands Its Presence in Latin America
Nobody should think that Moscow’s aggressive campaign to restore its former status as a global great power or its fundamentally anti-American policy is currently confined to Ukraine. Indeed, while the
Russo-Japanese Rapprochement Moves Forward
Despite the mounting ferocity of Sino-Japanese rhetoric, China’s partner Russia is moving forward on normalizing its ties with Japan. Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Russian President Vladimir
Signs of New Russian Thinking About the Military and War
During peacetime, a key function of the General Staff, Ministry of Defense, and key components of them like the Academy of Military Sciences is to determine the nature of contemporary
Russia Begins Collecting Its Ukrainian Gas Bill
Although demonstrators still occupy the Maidan in central Kyiv and none of Ukraine’s fundamental issues that precipitated the crisis in late 2013 have been resolved, it is clear that the
Russia’s Arctic Policy: Between Commercialization and Militarization
2013 was a big year for Arctic commerce. But for Russia it was mainly a big a year for the re-militarization of the Arctic. Thus, Russian policy remains trapped between
The Latest Round of Russian Nuclear Intimidation
October–November 2013 witnessed a series of concerted Russian actions designed to express Moscow’s anger at the ballistic missile defense (BMD) program being implemented by the United States and the North
Moscow Talks Business, Beijing Answers with Geo-strategy
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited Beijing on October 22 and 23, as Russia signed large energy, trade and investment deals with the Chinese government. Rosneft signed a Memorandum of
Indo-Russian Summit Highlights Emerging Trends in Asian International Relations
Indian Premier Manmohan Singh’s October 21–22 visit to Moscow not only reaffirmed traditional Indo-Russian amity, it also revealed significant trends in Asian developments that affect both parties as well as
Tennessee Williams and Russian Arms Sales in Latin America
At a recent Kremlin session for the Commission of Military-Technical Cooperation with Foreign States, President Vladimir Putin outlined Russian arms sales policy. According to Putin, Russia has achieved notable results
What Do the Zapad 2013 Exercises Reveal? (Part Two)
On September 20–26, Russia carried out Zapad (“West”) 2013 military exercises with Belarusian forces. Though the training scenario envisioned repulsing an attack on Belarus by “terrorist” forces, Zapad 2013’s territorial
What Do the Zapad 2013 Exercises Reveal? (Part One)
Summer through early fall is traditionally the main exercise season for Russia’s armed forces, and 2013 was no different from preceding years. Russian exercises are important because they reveal where,
Russia’s Latest Arctic Gambit
Russia invariably proclaims that its response to the challenges provided by the opening up of the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is purely political, diplomatic and peaceful. Yet,
Russo-China Naval Exercises: Dragging Moscow into China’s Territorial Disputes?
From July 5 to 12 the Chinese and Russian navies participated in a joint exercise called “Joint Sea 2013.” This was the first of two exercises conducted by these two
Is Latin America a New Frontier for Russian Policy?
Latin America is not generally thought of as a high priority for Russian foreign policy. But as relations with the United States continue to stagnate as they did in 2008,
Russia Seeks Naval and Air Bases in Cyprus
The past two years have seen a steady rise in Russia’s willingness to deploy its navy into the Mediterranean, to Syria, and Cyprus in order to demonstrate Russian power, support
Exploring the Significance of China’s Membership on the Arctic Council
The recent decision of the Arctic Council to admit China and several other Asian states to observer status there represents an epochal decision for both Arctic and Asian affairs. China,
Moscow Pulls Back the Curtain on Zapad 2013
Four years ago, Russia conducted an exercise called Zapad (West) 2009 to test the efficacy of its, then, new military reforms as well as its doctrine and strategy. Today, that
Russia’s Heightened Interest in Africa
The Soviet Union conducted a robust policy toward Africa, but that ended with the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. As Russian analysts today admit, Africa, relatively speaking,
Stephen Blank quoted by Voice of America
Stephen Blank was quoted by Voice of America in an article about the S-300 air defense systems Russia will supply to Syria.
Lost in Space? Moscow Tries to Rebuild Its Civilian and Military Space Programs
Since 1991, the highly developed Soviet space industry has fallen on hard times. Even though much Russian commentary has emphasized the competitiveness of Russia’s present-day space sector, it has nonetheless
Stephen Blank quoted by The Economic Times
Jamestown analyst Stephen Blank was quoted by The Economic Times in an article titled "India does not retaliate against Pakistan due to nuclear weapons"
What Is the Significance of Russia’s Black Sea Maneuvers?
At 4 a.m. on March 28, President Vladimir Putin delivered a sealed letter to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordering him to launch at once unscheduled maneuvers involving not just the
Is Russia Losing Ground in India’s Arms Market?
India remains Russia’s biggest customer for arms sales and technology transfers. It still receives about 70 percent of its defense imports from Russia and accounts for between 30–40 percent of
Facing the “Permanent Arab Spring”: Terrorism and Russia’s Evolving Threat Assessment
The extensive and ever-proliferating literature on terrorism since 2001 remains overwhelmingly West-centric in character. Much less is written or known about terrorist threats in areas where the West is not
Is There at Long Last a Russo-Chinese Gas Deal?
In advance of new Chinese President Xi Jinping’s forthcoming visit to Moscow, a major “deliverable” has finally emerged. On February 27, Gazprom and the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) announced
Jamestown analysts offer insight to Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Jacob Zenn and Stephen Blank offered their analyses at a hearing on the "Threat of militarized Islam in Eurasia" at the Committee for Foreign Affairs of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Russia Reacts Predictably to North Korean Nuclear Test
Since it participates in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, Russia has a vital interest in developments there. Therefore, Russia’s governmental and expert community reactions to the North
Russia Aims to Extend Alliance with Venezuela
Hugo Chavez’s reported life-threatening illness has repercussions beyond Venezuela and even Latin America. The prospect of a potential change in Venezuela’s leadership has led Russia to seek to ensure its
Shared Threat Perceptions Begin Renewal of Sino-Russian Arms Trade
Despite the fulsome exchanges between Russia and China concerning their bilateral relationship, Sino-Russian military ties have, in recent years, been quite volatile. It now appears, however, that those ties are
The Mistral Saga Takes a New Turn
It is becoming clear that there will be major reversals in key elements of Russian defense policy as a result of the fall of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov in November
What Do Russia’s Arms Sales to Bangladesh Mean?
On January 15–16, President Vladimir Putin held talks in Moscow with Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sekh Hasina. As a result of these discussions, Russia has pledged to lend Bangladesh $1 billion
Russia Places Moldova in an Energy and Sovereignty Vise
Since Transnistria elected a new “president” on December 11, 2011, Russia has been trying to tighten its controls over this province, which was carved out of Moldova and is sustained
Russia’s Ever Friendlier Ties to Vietnam—Are They a Signal to China?
The regional tensions precipitated by China’s demand to incorporate virtually all of the South China Sea into its territorial waters are well known and acute. China has previously warned the
Russia Plays Both Sides Against the Middle on Senkaku Islands
It has become clear that China intends to wage a prolonged war of psychological attrition against Japan with regard to the disputed Senkaku Islands, a crisis with profound international repercussions.
Is Moscow Losing Its India Connection?
Earlier in October, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin traveled to India to complete discussions ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s planned trip there and to negotiate nuclear and arms deals.
Whatever Happened to Russia’s Korea Projects?
In August 2011, Russia signed what appeared to be a momentous agreement with North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea—DPRK), an accord that marked Kim Jong Il’s last great foreign
Russia and Japan Try (Again) for a Rapprochement
For several months, although Russia has insulted Japan by strengthening its claims to the Kurile Islands and even reinforcing them militarily, Moscow and Tokyo have been trying to initiate a
What Does Russo–Serbian Strategic Partnership Mean?
Serbia is the key target of Russian foreign policy in the Western Balkans, as Moscow’s main strategic objective remains forestalling the European democratic integration in the Balkans and Eastern Europe
Moscow Continues Heavy Reliance on Nuclear Weapons
At a recent nonproliferation conference Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Moscow is ready to continue reducing strategic offensive weapons on the condition that other countries preserve strategic
Rogun Dam Project Epitomizes Central Asian Security Dilemmas
Speaking in Kazakhstan on September 7, Uzbek President Islam Karimov strongly voiced his opposition to Central Asian water projects like the Rogun Dam in Tajikistan and the Kambarata-1 hydroelectric project
Russia’s Arctic Project Moves Forward but Epitomizes Russia’s Economic and Defense Problems
For several years, Russia has been telling the world about how it will build up its commercial, energy and military position in the Arctic. Recently, it appears to have begun
Political Struggle Breaks out over Defense and Procurement Spending
Since 2008, Russia has been attempting to substantially reform its armed forces, and in 2010, it launched a massive procurement or State Armaments Program (SAP) for 2011-2020. That program calls
Kazakhstan Completes Major Uranium and Rare Earths Deals with Japan
Major deals in uranium and rare earths are not normally thought of as having important political content, but in the case of Kazakhstan’s recent deals with Japan that is true
General Makarov Makes Incendiary Remarks in Finland
Speaking in Helsinki on June 5, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff General Nikolai Makarov made several incendiary remarks about Finland. Since such speeches are only made with official guidance,
Russia’s Quiet Rapprochement with Pakistan
Quietly and unobtrusively, a Russo-Pakistani rapprochement has been developing behind the scenes of world politics for the last two years. On Pakistan’s side, the almost spectacular deterioration of relations with
Russo-Chinese Naval Exercises Reflect Moscow’s Delicate Balancing Act in Asia
Historically naval exercises have sometimes played a key role in diplomatic signaling. One can only look back at the Franco-Russian naval exercises in 1891-92, which portended the creation of the
Russia Again Seeks to Quash the Trans-Caspian Pipeline
The Azeri-Turkish agreements of late 2011 have opened up real possibilities for effecting positive gains in the European and trans-Caspian energy equation. These agreements arranging for the transport of Azeri
Moscow Mixes Profit with Principle in Syria
To hear Moscow tell it, Russia’s aims in Syria are only motivated by principle. It opposes the use of ambiguous UN resolutions to permit intervention to forcibly democratize a country,
Azerbaijan’s Arms Deal with Israel Raises Caucasus Tensions
Already in 2012, two Iranian terrorist plots against Azerbaijan have been exposed, Moscow has substantially reinforced its garrisons in the Caucasus in expectation of a war involving Iran by this
Russia Launches New Initiative Toward Japan
Signs are multiplying that Moscow has launched a new initiative toward Tokyo to improve Russo-Japanese relations. In addition, this initiative is part of Moscow’s never-ending quest to be considered a
Russia Reacts to the Korean Succession
As Russia is a member of the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program and a neighbor of North Korea, it naturally was concerned by the announcement of Kim Jong-Il’s
Putin’s Agenda: The Arctic Revival
Russian foreign policy under Vladimir Putin is increasingly resorting to gunboat diplomacy (see EDM, December 12). However, another key element in Putin’s agenda has been his aggressive campaign to assert
Putin’s Agenda: Gunboat Diplomacy
Since announcing his return to the presidency on September 24, Vladimir Putin has regained the limelight (though he never lost the power) attached to the direction of Russian foreign policy.
A New Rapprochement Between Moscow and Tehran
The US reset policy has already become an object of political contention between Democrats and Republicans. The Obama Administration never ceases to point to it as a success, not least
A Scandal In Serbia?
On September 15, on the eve of the NATO EULEX mission’s takeover of the Kosovo customs’ points Brnjak and Jarinje, Russian Ambassador Aleksandr Konuzin created a diplomatic scandal in Serbia
Can Anyone Save the Russian Defense Industry?
In what might be called his presidential campaign speeches, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that within a decade a three trillion ruble ($95.18 billion) modernization program will completely rearm
Complaints Abounding or Dialogue of the Deaf: Once Again Russia Complains About Missile Defense
Reportedly, the US Ambassador to Russia, John Beyrle, is optimistic that Moscow and Washington will agree by May 2012 (prior to NATO’s Chicago Summit) on an information exchange system on
The CSTO: Gendarme of Eurasia
Recent articles in the Eurasia Daily Monitor (EDM) have extensively covered Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) exercises and its decision to work openly to frustrate any manifestation of Arab-Spring like
Kim Jong Il’s Excellent Adventure In Siberia
During his meetings with President Dmitry Medvedev on August 24, Kim-Jong Il reportedly agreed to resume the six-party talks over North Korea’s nuclear weapons without preconditions; if the talks take
Medvedev’s Remarks on Georgian War Anniversary: Politics, Lies, and Electioneering
On August 5, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev gave an interview to Moscow-based and Georgian media on the third anniversary of the Russia-Georgia war in August 2008 (www.kremlin.ru, August 5). Medvedev
Moscow Puts the Heat On Minsk and Kyiv
Moscow is piling the heat on Minsk and Kyiv to subordinate their economies, notably their energy sectors, to Russia and with that accept Russia’s political tutelage. In both cases, Moscow
Revising the Border: China’s Inroads into Tajikistan
The foundation of China’s policies toward Russia and Central Asia since 1991 lies in the border treaties it signed with these states over this period. Those treaties demarcated the borders
Failure to Resolve Karabakh Conflict Has Regional Repercussions
The failure of the tripartite Kazan summit on June 24 to resolve the standoff in Karabakh will undoubtedly have serious regional repercussions. Certainly they cast the insight and capability of
Russia’s “Hysterical Pregnancy” About Missile Defenses
Russian officials from President Dmitry Medvedev and down have recently subjected the US and NATO to a typical diplomatic offensive against missile defenses in Europe. In this offensive Russian spokesmen
Moscow Tries to Rescue Syria from Its Own Crimes
Syria has been a long-term friend of Russia during the past fifty years. Throughout this time, Moscow has sold the country weapons, supported its diplomatic posture in the Arab-Israeli struggle
Moscow Rediscovers the South American Arms Market
These are trying times for Russian arms sellers. UN resolutions have closed much of the Iranian markets. Revolutionary violence in Syria and Libya has stopped billions of dollars in sales
High-Level Trips Underscore Serbia’s Importance to Russia
Despite the distractions of other crises the Russian government continues to plow ahead with its designs for the Balkans, particularly the intended South Stream pipeline. In its quest for renewed
China’s Central Asian Profile Continues Growing
Though largely unnoticed by the media, China continues to expand its economic and therefore political and strategic position in Central Asia. This expansion even includes territorial revisions in China’s favor.
Russia to Deploy S-400 Anti-Aircraft Missiles in Kurile Islands
In recent weeks there has been a great deal written about the Russian decision to reinforce the Kurile Islands. There is no doubt that this step, announced in early February,
The Curious Incident of the Stealth Fighter in China
China’s January 2011 announcement of its new J-20 stealth fighter caused consternation in the US. Indeed, the subsequent blizzard of press controversy led the Pentagon to admit that its intelligence
Russia’s Navy Muscles Up and Looks East
According to Russia’s decade-long military procurement plan the Navy will receive 4.7 trillion rubles ($159 billion) of the total 20 trillion rubles ($678 billion), a figure that Prime Minister, Vladimir
Turning a New Leaf in Relations: Russia’s Renewed Arms Sale to China
Tensions in the arms sales relationship between Russia and China have been visibly on the rise in recent years. Yet, in November 2010, Moscow and Beijing announced a large new
Lurching Toward Militarization: Russian Defense Spending in the Coming Decade
New trends in Russian defense spending signal a return towards militarization. In the past decade, defense spending increased from 141 billion rubles to 2,025 trillion rubles without leading to a
Missiles and Missile Defenses in Europe Highlight Limits of East-West Rapprochement
Despite the statements from the NATO Lisbon summit about partnership with Russia, it did not take long for Moscow to demonstrate why partnership with it is so difficult, as well
The Arctic: A Future Source of Russo-Chinese Discord?
Since 2007, in large part due to aggressive Russian posturing, the Arctic region has become a bone of contention among members of the Arctic Council as well as a subject
Moscow Shows Anxiety Over Passing the New START Treaty
Even before the US midterm elections, the Russian government and media expressed concern that the New START treaty, signed in Prague in April of 2010, might not obtain ratification (ITAR-TASS,
Despite Arms Sales Accord with Israel, Russia Sells Anti-Ship Missiles to Syria
Russia may have refused to sell the S-300 missile to Iran, but it is hardly refraining from selling weapons to its traditional Middle Eastern friends. Despite its recent agreement to
New Strains Emerge in the Sino-Russian Military Relationship
The military dimension of Sino-Russian ties, particularly arms sales, has been deteriorating since 2006-07. While that decline partly reflects the growing prowess of China's defense industrial base, a major part
Shrinking Ground: Russia’s Decline in Global Arms Sales
Given the recent “reset” policy put in place by the Obama administration with regards to Russia policy, a closer look into the Kremlin’s arm sales practices might prove critical for
Lavrov’s Visit to Poland: Is Russia’s Rapprochement with Poland Real?
In the last couple of years, Russia has engaged in a rapprochement policy with Poland preceding the death of Poland’s President, Lech Kaczynski and many leading members of the government
Russia Insults Japan Even As It Seeks Peace and Friendship
As China becomes visibly more aggressive, tensions in Asia are visible, and Russian foreign policy changes to emphasize its economic relations with advanced countries who will sell it technology; it
The China-Pakistan Reactor Deal and Asia’s Nuclear Energy Race
In late April, China announced the sale of two nuclear reactors to Pakistan. This deal is clearly against the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the spirit if
Putin and Chavez Reach Major Deals in Caracas : Part Two
Russia’s central partner in Latin America remains Venezuela and Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin’s, visit there underscores the scope of that partnership. Putin’s trip encompassed several large deals with Venezuela that
Putin Makes Energy and Arms Deals with Potential Latin American Allies: Part One
There can be no doubting Moscow’s intention to play a larger role in Latin America. President, Dmitry Medvedev, has confirmed this and Russian diplomacy in the past three months has
Russia’s Strategic Gains at Ukraine’s and Europe’s Expense
Russia’s new deal with Ukraine on the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and gas prices has profound bilateral significance, as well as for the CIS and even Europe. It ratifies long-term
Is a Russian-Uzbek Rapprochement in the Offing?
Uzbekistan is famous for its flexibility in maneuvering between Moscow and Washington. Most recently, President Islam Karimov has been the subject of overtures from the US and NATO to which
Russia is Open for Nuclear Business in Asia
Although other issues have taken center stage recently, it is possible to discern in Moscow’s policies across Asia a renewed emphasis on the sale of nuclear reactors to interested Asian
Arms Control Intersects With Russian Leadership Struggle
With the announcement of a new arms control treaty in the media, the US Senate, and the Duma will naturally focus on issues such as the numbers of warheads and
Sergei Lavrov Travels to Latin America
During his presidential tour of Latin America in 2008, Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia’s Latin American policy was only beginning. Although the pace of these relations cooled in 2009, due
Will China Join the Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline?
For over a decade Iran, Pakistan and India (IPI) have took pains at negotiating a major pipeline deal whereby Iran would send natural gas from its territory to the region.
European Proposal on Tactical Nuclear Weapons Highlights Russian Nuclear Dilemmas
As the negotiations on a bilateral arms control treaty lumber towards conclusion, the issue of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) in Europe has regained prominence. Recently Germany, Norway, Poland, and Sweden
The Strategic Implications of the Turkmenistan-China Pipeline Project
On December 14, 2009, China and Turkmenistan formally opened the longest natural gas pipeline, which runs from Turkmenistan through Central Asia to China. This pipeline, financed by China National Petroleum
Vietnam is Russia’s Biggest Arms Customer
It may surprise readers to learn that in 2009 Vietnam was Russia’s best customer for its arms exports (www.defensenews.com, January 21). During 2009, Vietnam bought six Russian kilo-class submarines and
China’s Rising Profile in International Arms Sales
The year 2009 will likely be remembered as the beginning of a more assertive phase in Chinese foreign policy, as seen in Beijing's stance on reform of the international financial
Peace-Mission 2009: A Military Scenario Beyond Central Asia
Most analyses of the Sino-Russian strategic partnership focus either on Russian arms sales to China or on the joint military exercises conducted by Moscow and Beijing under the auspices of
China’s Russian Far East
On April 21, 2009, China formally concluded an agreement to lend $25 billion to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft and pipeline monopoly Transneft in exchange for the completion of an
Recent Trends in Russo-Chinese Military Relations
The Russo-Chinese relationship is a multi-dimensional one. Thus progress in each aspect of those ties is uneven. For instance, Russia has consistently failed to satisfy China’s demands for energy, which
The Russo-Chinese Energy Follies
Chinese and Russian officials habitually proclaim that their bilateral relations have never been better and thereby invoke a great congruence in their agenda for the international regime. Thus Viktor Kremenyuk,
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Georgian Crisis
The Russian invasion, occupation, and dismemberment of Georgia represent the greatest challenge if not crisis to confront the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In American commentary on the SCO there has
Instability in Tibet and Its Repercussions for Xinjiang
Since March 10, unrest in the Tibet Autonomous Region—in spite of the Chinese government efforts at keeping it secret—punctured China’s Great Wall as news, pictures and videos flooded the internet,
WILL TURKMEN GAS GO SOUTH AS WELL AS WEST?
Most commentary on Turkmenistan’s energy future has focused on the possibility of its being able to sell gas directly to Europe instead of having to go through Russia to do
SERDYUKOV’S AUTHORITY GROWS AT MINISTRY OF DEFENSE
Many observers scoffed when Vladimir Putin appointed Anatoly Serdyukov to head the Ministry of Defense in February 2007, because Serdyukov had no experience in national security. Instead, he was known
RUSSIA SHOWS MUTED PLEASURE OVER PROGRESS TO DENUCLEARIZE NORTH KOREA
The six-party talks over North Korea’s denuclearization resumed Wednesday, July 18, amid real grounds for cautious optimism. The agreement reached in February 2007 has held despite some delays in implementation,
GABALA PLAN SHOT DOWN BY TEHRAN, MOSCOW’S STRATEGIC PARTNER
Although several Russian press commentaries have claimed that President Vladimir Putin’s proposal that the United States and Russia jointly establish a radar base at Gabala, Azerbaijan, has somehow shaken up
China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at Five
It is an established fact among U.S. officials: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is China's primary multilateral instrument to implement its openly anti-U.S. policy in Central Asia. The recently concluded
China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at Five
It is an established fact among U.S. officials: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is China's primary multilateral instrument to implement its openly anti-U.S. policy in Central Asia. The recently concluded
China’s Emerging Energy Nexus with Central Asia
China's quest for energy security has driven it to the greater Caspian basin, a region whose resources were once the proprietary domain of the Soviet Union but are now available
China’s Emerging Energy Nexus with Central Asia
China's quest for energy security has driven it to the greater Caspian basin, a region whose resources were once the proprietary domain of the Soviet Union but are now available
China’s Displeasure with North Korea’s Missile Tests
Conventional wisdom in Washington has stated that Beijing, if it wished to do so, could easily persuade Pyongyang to return to the Six-Party Talks and possibly even renounce its nuclear
China’s Displeasure with North Korea’s Missile Tests
Conventional wisdom in Washington has stated that Beijing, if it wished to do so, could easily persuade Pyongyang to return to the Six-Party Talks and possibly even renounce its nuclear
KREMLIN EXPANDS ECONOMIC INTERESTS IN NORTH KOREA
Few observers believe that Russia has played -- or is playing -- a major role in the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program. But this fact has not dissuaded
RUSSIA AND THE KOREAN AGREEMENT: RELIEF MINGLED WITH GLEE AND WARINESS
True to past experience, Russia greeted the six-party agreement on Korea signed February 12-13, with official expressions of correct appreciation and relief that the “nightmare of the Korean crisis [was]
IRAN SUGGESTS ACTING AS SECURITY GUARANTOR IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS
The headlines on Russo-Iranian relations at the end of January focused on Iran’s support for a “gas OPEC” and Russia’s reiteration of the idea that this is an attractive prospect
RUSSIA REGRETS SADDAM HUSSEIN’S DEATH
Deposing a dictator, let alone hanging him in public, has never been popular in Russia. Saddam Hussein’s death was no exception. Public commentary in Russia over Saddam’s death by hanging
RUSSIAN MEDIA SPLIT ON IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT
Surprisingly, the official Russian media reaction to the publication of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report has been very restrained -- even difficult to find (Rossiya TV, NTV, December 6).
RUSSIA UNFAZED BY NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR TEST
Although North Korea’s nuclear test on October 9 transformed the Northeast Asian landscape, it apparently has not changed the postures of the members of the six-party talks all that much.
RUSSIA SEEKS ENTREE INTO EUROPE’S AVIATION MARKET
Recently Vneshtorgbank, Moscow’s state owned foreign trade bank, spent about a billion dollars to buy 5.02% of the shares of the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Corporation (EADS). The revelation
China’s Displeasure with North Korea’s Missile Tests
Conventional wisdom in Washington has stated that Beijing, if it wished to do so, could easily persuade Pyongyang to return to the Six-Party Talks and possibly even renounce its nuclear
RUSSIA’S LATEST NAVAL TRAGEDY
On the morning of September 7, the St. Daniil Moskovsky, a Russian Victor III-class submarine that was commissioned in 1990 and went to sea in 1991, caught fire in the
PUTIN EMBRACES DOUBLE STANDARD IN MID-EAST CRISIS
Although the Russian press regularly rebukes the West for double standards regarding terrorism, such as supporting the insurgents in Chechnya, media outlets have not pointed out that Moscow is taking
China’s Emerging Energy Nexus with Central Asia
China's quest for energy security has driven it to the greater Caspian basin, a region whose resources were once the proprietary domain of the Soviet Union but are now available
BASAEV GONE, BUT MOSCOW STILL HAS HEADACHES IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
The July 9 death of Chechen warlord Shamil Basaev from an accidental explosion -- not a Russian-planned operation -- removes the Chechen rebels’ most charismatic and probably most ruthless commander
RUSSIA TURNS THE OTHER CHEEK ON NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH
Moscow’s muted reaction to North Korea’s missile launches on July 4 comes as somewhat of a surprise. North Korea endangered Russian commercial vessels, the Russian Navy in the Sea of
MOSCOW SURPRISINGLY COMPLACENT OVER NORTH KOREAN MISSILE THREATS
The growing furor over North Korea's preparations for a missile test has evoked only a tepid response in Moscow. Beijing only weighed in publicly on June 21, with a typically
China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at Five
It is an established fact among U.S. officials: the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is China's primary multilateral instrument to implement its openly anti-U.S. policy in Central Asia. The recently concluded
RUSSIA VIEWS THE VIENNA AGREEMENTS ON IRAN AS VICTORY
The five-power agreement on Iran reached in Vienna on June 1 represented a victory for Russian diplomacy, in that Moscow and China's tenacity forced Washington to consent to direct participation
READING PUTIN’S MILITARY TEA LEAVES
Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual speech to the Federal Assembly on May 10 was notable for its emphasis on military affairs. Putin outlined new and increasing threats from the arms
Turkmenistan Completes China’s Triple Play in Energy
During the first week in April, China and Turkmenistan signed a deal by which Turkmenistan will annually sell China 30 BCM of gas from 2009 to 2039 at a price
RUSSIAN ENERGY PROFITS AID RUSSIAN MILITARY, BUT NOT MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Although energy and foreign policy issues have dominated reporting from Russia in 2006, there have also been interesting developments in the defense sector. The Putin regime has launched a comprehensive
RUSSIA WALKS THE TIGHTROPE BETWEEN IRAN AND WASHINGTON
The virtually simultaneous revelation of U.S. contingency -- and even operational -- planning for Iran by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker magazine and of Iran's capacity for enhancing uranium
TEHRAN ANNOUNCES NEW NUCLEAR DEAL WITH MOSCOW, BUT CONTENT IS RERUN OF OLD ARGUMENTS
On Sunday, February 26, Tehran announced an agreement about creating an Iranian-Russian joint venture to enrich uranium. Despite the fanfare, the deal does not represent a genuine agreement that overcomes
MOSCOW RECYCLES OFFER TO PROCESS IRANIAN NUCLEAR FUEL
In the wake of the Iranian nuclear crisis, Moscow has advanced a new, or rather seemingly new, proposal to build a center for spent fuel from Iran and other states
RUMORS SUGGEST MAJOR RUSSIAN MILITARY REORGANIZATION IMMINENT
Western accounts of Vladimir Putin's Russia have almost wholly ignored the regime's ongoing efforts at defense reform, even though they have been steadily underway for at least two or three
China’s New Moves in the Central Asian Energy Sweepstakes
In December 2005 China and Kazakhstan opened the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, the first intended to export Kazakh and Russian oil to China. This 988 kilometer pipeline is expected to be fully
RUSSIA AND THE TWO-KOREAS: THE LATEST ROUND
The latest round of the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program took place November 9-11 in Beijing. Like many of the preceding rounds, this one ended inconclusively. While U.S.
PetroKaz: China’s Difficult Search for Central Asian Energy
On October 25, a Canadian court dismissed Lukoil’s lawsuit against China National Petroleum Company (CNPC)’s purchase of Petrokaz, a firm headquartered in Canada that owns several Kazakh oil fields. Immediately
AFTER THE TULIP REVOLUTION: ARE SINO-KYRGYZ RELATIONS STILL “ALIVE AND KICKING?”
On the sidelines of the October 26 Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Moscow, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Kyrgyz Prime Minister Felix Kulov met to discuss bilateral ties. Wen
RUSSIA’S NAVY PINS HOPES ON BULAVA NUCLEAR MISSILE
During his September 27 call-in television program, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again invoked one of his favorite themes. Specifically, he stressed that under his leadership Russia is developing new
RUSSIA ASSESSES THE NORTH KOREA SIX-PARTY AGREEMENT
The Russian government and media welcomed the six-party agreement about North Korea's nuclear programs announced on September 19. Izvestiya even called it a breakthrough. Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Alexeyev, Russia's
PUTIN FIRES RUSSIA’S TOP ADMIRAL ONE DAY BEFORE HIS ANTICIPATED RETIREMENT
On September 4 Russian President Vladimir Putin fired Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy. While the stated reason was the admiral's age, other factors clearly influenced the decision.
RUSSIA’S UPS AND DOWNS IN THE KOREAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS
The most recent session of the six-power talks over North Korean nuclearization finally got down to serious negotiations. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alexeyev, head of Russia's delegation, confirmed afterward
RUSSIA’S DISREGARD FOR JAPANESE INTERESTS MAY REDUCE JAPANESE ECONOMIC INVESTMENT
As Russian President Vladimir Putin looks toward a scheduled state visit to Japan November 20-22, the pace of bilateral diplomatic activity has recently quickened. The upswing in contacts is also
RUSSIA APPEARS TO BE A SILENT PARTNER IN LATEST KOREAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS
Russia's media have been unusually quiet, even restrained, about the July 9 announcement that North Korea would return to the six-party talks on its nuclear program on or around July
PUTIN’S MÉNAGE À TROIS IN KALININGRAD
Over the weekend of July 3-4, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted French President Jacques Chirac and German Prime Minister Gerhard Schroeder for a summit in Kaliningrad, supposedly to celebrate the
IS AMERICA’S MILITARY BASE IN UZBEKISTAN AT RISK?
The debate over an independent investigation of the May massacre in Andijan, Uzbekistan, has left America's ties to Uzbekistan and the future of its base at Karshi Khanabad engulfed by
ISLAM KARIMOV AND THE HEIRS OF TIANANMEN
Fresh from the massacre at Andijan, Islam Karimov traveled to China in late May, where he received not just praise, but expressions of China's delight at his handling of the
The Future of Uzbekistan After Andijan
To assess the nature and likely development of terrorist threats to Uzbekistan in the wake of the Andijan massacre, we must determine what exactly happened there on May 12-13 and
RUSSIA AND IRAN JOIN HANDS IN THE CASPIAN
While Central Asia and the Caucasus have been the recent focus of world attention due to the popular revolution in Kyrgyzstan and the massacre in Andijan, Uzbekistan, potentially significant strategic
MOSCOW SENDING MIXED MESSAGES ON IRANIAN NUCLEARIZATION
While Russia helped Iran build its nuclear reactor at Bushehr, Moscow now appears to be pushing Tehran to abandon dreams of further nuclearization (Interfax April 28, 29). Iran claims to
Cynicism Personified: Moscow And Riyadh’s Collaboration Against Chechnya
[Dear Readers, The Jamestown Foundation's Spotlight on Terror presents a special analysis of a major diplomatic development related to the war on terror. Two countries aligned with the United States
RUSSIAN PRESIDENT TRAVELS TO MIDDLE EAST, BEARING GIFTS FOR ALL
From April 26-30 Russian President Vladimir Putin will make an unprecedented trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories, and he will be the first Russian leader to visit Egypt in
PRIMAKOV’S RUSSIA/INDIA/CHINA TRIANGLE NEARS REALIZATION
Although the world media emphasized the proclamation of a Sino-Indian strategic partnership during Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's recent visit to New Delhi, it overlooked another equally important development. Wen Jiabao
RUSSIA WILL SELL ERITREA ANTI-TANK MISSILES TO USE AGAINST ETHIOPIA’S RUSSIAN-MADE WEAPONS
Russia is apparently ready to flaunt its arms sales programs to countries at risk -- or who pose a risk -- of war and to do so in Africa. Recent
BAIT AND SWITCH: MOSCOW’S SHELL GAME IN CHECHNYA
Even though Moscow successfully eliminated Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov in an apparently carefully planned and long-term operation in March, there is little sign of progress towards peace in the breakaway
BISHKEK REASSURES BEIJING AFTER TULIP REVOLUTION
China invested considerable economic, political, and military resources in Kyrgyzstan, so it is no surprise that Beijing has been disconcerted by the rapid fall of the Akayev regime and the
TIES STRENGTHEN BETWEEN TASHKENT AND NEW DELHI
From April 4 to 6 Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov visited New Delhi to conduct negotiations with the Indian government and to sign 12 agreements with India. These accords ranged over
ENDING THE EU ARMS EMBARGO: THE REPERCUSSIONS FOR RUSSIA
The impending termination of the EU's embargo on arms sales to China has implications beyond EU-U.S. and EU-China relations. The motives of the players in this drama, as well as
MOSCOW LOOKS TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS CHEAP WAY TO FILL ITS ARSENAL
Russia's nuclear policy has once again become the stuff of controversy. On the one hand, domestic right-wingers, darkly suspicious of rumored U.S.-Russian agreements to put Russia's nuclear arsenal under some
RUSSIAN ARMS AND THE SEARCH FOR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
By all accounts, events in the Middle East are moving in a direction that could lead to significant breakthroughs in Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel-Palestinian relations. Yet Moscow, while claiming support
INDIA’S QUEST FOR CENTRAL ASIAN ENERGY
India, the world's second fastest growing economy, relies on oil and gas imports for its economic development. And, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh observed, it can no longer remain complacent
WILL VENEZUELA SEND RUSSIAN WEAPONS TO SOUTH AMERICAN TERRORISTS?
Russian foreign policy seems to be increasingly affected by an unresolved schizophrenia that causes it to strike blindly at America, even if it gains little in the process. Last month
PRIMAKOV’S VISIT TO THE MIDDLE EAST: HIGH PROFILE, FEW RESULTS
In recent months, Moscow has launched several foreign policy initiatives as part of an effort to recapture something of its vanished influence in the Middle East. Since 1991 Russian officials
RUSSIA-JAPANESE RELATIONS AT A FAMILIAR IMPASSE
Despite initial hopes that Russian President Vladimir Putin would visit Japan in March, the month is rapidly approaching without a date being set. Thirty years ago, at the height of
BASHAR ASSAD COMES TO MOSCOW, SEEKING GIFTS
Earlier this month a scandal broke out when it became known that Moscow was planning to sell Syria the Iskander-E and Igla anti-air missiles (see EDM, January 17). Rumors of
KYRGYZSTAN TEETERS ON VERGE OF A NERVOUS BREAKDOWN
Ukraine 's Orange Revolution has produced a not unexpected reaction throughout Central Asia , a region where elections, more often than not, are orchestrated endorsements of the ruling party and
The Central Asian Dimension Of Chinese Military Strategy
Although most analyses of Chinese military affairs focus on Taiwan, China also directs its ongoing military modernization program on border areas like Xinjiang and Central Asia. Indeed, at least one
Cynicism Personified: Moscow And Riyadh’s Collaboration Against Chechnya
[Dear Readers, The Jamestown Foundation's Spotlight on Terror presents a special analysis of a major diplomatic development related to the war on terror. Two countries aligned with the United States
THIS TIME WE REALLY MEAN IT: RUSSIAN MILITARY REFORM
By Stephen Blank The Chechen terrorist attack on a Moscow theater in October and its violent denouement stimulated Russia's government to launch, yet again, a round of military reform. Immediately
A NEW SPRINGTIME OF THE NATIONS?
By Stephen Blank A specter is haunting the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); the specter of popular unrest. In the last year we have seen political crisis strike country after